Ankara Closes Airspace to Russian Aircraft Headed to Syria

Zelenskyy, Erdoğan discuss coordination as Turkey tries balancing act with NATO

In a blow to the Kremlin, Ankara has closed its airspace to Russian military and civilian aircraft going to Syria, Turkey’s state broadcaster reported on Saturday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Moscow had been informed of the decision.

It was unclear whether the move also aimed to prevent the transfer of Syrian mercenaries to Ukraine.

Ryan Bohl, a Middle East and North Africa analyst with RANE/Stratfor intelligence platform, told The Media Line he believed the closure increased the chances of a confrontation between Turkey and Russia, most likely with Moscow retaliating financially.

He added, however, that such a measure would not likely happen immediately as Russia still has access to its forces in Syria.

And on Sunday, Ankara and Kyiv spoke about coordinating moves regarding Ukraine’s security, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy said he also spoke to his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, about the need for civilians to be evacuated from the besieged city of Mariupol, adding that Erdoğan would be soon speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Had an important phone conversation with President [Erdoğan]. On the eve of his talks with Putin, I stressed the need for immediate evacuation of civilians from Mariupol, including [the] Azovstal [steel and iron works], and immediate exchange of blocked troops,” the Ukrainian leader tweeted.

“Discussed the course of the negotiation process, coordination with [Turkey] & other countries of security guarantees for our state,” Zelenskyy continued.

The phone call came as high-level US officials were expected in Kyiv.

Zelenskyy said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin would visit later on Sunday after British Prime Minister Boris Johnston toured the city with the Ukrainian president earlier this month.

In a show of unity among US allies, Washington said it would meet with officials from 20 countries, including non-NATO members, to discuss Ukraine’s security.

The meeting will take place on Tuesday at a US military base in Germany and Austin will attend, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced last week.

Officials from “like-minded nations” will discuss supplying arms to Ukraine during the war as well as assisting its military in the future, he said.

Turkey has sought to balance its ties with Russia, which were strengthened in recent years, with its support for Kyiv and cooperation with fellow NATO member states during the war in Ukraine.

Russia is a key source of energy and tourism for Turkey.

After Erdoğan met with Zelenskyy in 2021, Russia limited flights to Turkey, saying the move was over concerns about rising COVID-19 cases.

Bohl said that Turkey’s decision to close its airspace shows it is gradually shifting closer to NATO.

Ties between Ankara and its Western allies have been strained for years.

Turkey criticized fellow NATO member states for not defending the Erdoğan government when it faced a coup attempt in 2016, with some officials claiming the US knew about it beforehand.

On Wednesday, Çavuşoğlu accused some NATO countries of wanting to prolong the war in Ukraine in order to weaken Russia.

Bohl said Western officials would keep their complaints behind closed doors.

“I think privately they won’t be thrilled,” he said. “And publicly they’ll continue to talk about how important Turkey is as part of the alliance.”

Çavuşoğlu, who made the comments during an interview with the news channel CNN Turk, did not specify which NATO countries he was referring to.

Ankara has become a key player in the war in Ukraine, hosting talks between Moscow and Kyiv while maintaining communication with both sides.

Bohl believes the foreign minister’s comments were designed to send a message to Russia that Ankara could be somewhat neutral and facilitate negotiations between the sides, as well as a sign to nationalist voters in Turkey who do not want to see the country get too close to NATO.

Bohl added that the US would likely decrease its criticism of Ankara, for example over human rights violations, to appease Turkey while the war in Ukraine continued but that Washington remained skeptical of the Anatolian nation’s attempts to warm ties with the West.

Erdoğan has tried to improve relations with other countries amid an economic crisis in his country. The war in Ukraine has only increased concerns for Turkey’s finances.

Tourism, a key sector for the economy, will take a major hit as visitors from Russia and Ukraine are expected to drop.

While Russia and Turkey have historically been rivals and continue to have opposing interests on foreign battlefields, Erdoğan has straightened relations with Moscow in recent years, most notably by purchasing a Russian anti-missile defense system, the S-400, to the anger of the US.

Alper Coşkun, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he believed the minister’s comments were expressing Ankara’s interest in not having the war turn into a proxy fight or being used as a way to punish Russia.

“You don’t want a Russia that comes out of this with a sense of need for vengeance,” he said.

Coşkun, a former director-general for international security affairs at the foreign ministry in Ankara, added that Turkey’s exposure to Russia in several areas meant it had an increased interest in avoiding a long war.

Mensur Akgün, a professor of international relations at İstanbul Kültür University, agrees it is in Turkey’s interest to stop the fighting as soon as possible.

He believes Çavuşoğlu was expressing concerns that many in Turkey had about the risk of escalating the war.

Akgün told The Media Line that in the past, countries would carry out arms deliveries more discreetly and without providing many details.

“This time everything is done publicly, as if in order to push the other side, the Russian side, into intervention on NATO soil,” he said.

Other countries have also raised concerns about escalating the war.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, asked by Der Spiegel why Berlin has not sent more weapons to Ukraine, said he was concerned about the risk of a world war.

Akgün added that by maintaining ties with Russia, Turkey could help NATO to stay in communication with the Kremlin.

“It’s an outlet for NATO to reach to the Russian Federation when the need arises for compromise, for the settlement of the conflict, for mediation, for facilitation,” he said.