Erdogan Still Presses for Mid-May Elections

Turkey is constitutionally required to hold elections by mid-June but there has been speculation that they would be delayed in the wake of the devastating February 6 earthquake and its aftershocks

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has suggested that the country will hold elections on May 14 as his allies continue to face anger over the government’s response to the earthquake.

In an address to parliament on Wednesday, Erdogan said: “The time is approaching. This nation will give the necessary answer on May 14th,” according to Turkey’s state news channel.

The presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the toughest challenge yet to Erdogan’s hold on power in his 20 years in office.

I think there is a very good chance if Erdogan decides that elections would result in defeat, he would try to postpone them

Turkey’s electoral board is conducting research in the country’s earthquake-hit region that could lay the groundwork for delaying national elections, according to Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based foreign policy analyst.

Sezer believed that Erdogan would say that he wants elections to be held on time, but that a decision by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) to push the date back would give him no choice but to postpone.

The country is due to hold both parliamentary and presidential elections by June 18, though Erdogan earlier implied before the disaster that the vote would be held in mid-May.

After the earthquake, a high-profile member of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) said it would be difficult to hold elections until next year.

An editor with Turkey’s state news channel has also suggested that elections could be postponed due to challenges with would-be voters who have become homeless or died.

On Monday, a delegation with the YSK went to southeastern Turkey where the 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit the area last month, to see how an election could be held in the region, Hurriyet Daily News reported.

The outlet added that the YSK was looking at how homeless citizens who went to other regions in Turkey could cast ballots.

Erdogan already was expected to face a difficult time in getting reelected amid a struggling economy that has seen massive inflation and rising prices for a wide range of necessities, including food, utilities and housing.

“I think there is a very good chance if Erdogan decides that elections would result in defeat, he would try to postpone them,” Soner Cagaptay, a senior fellow with a focus on Turkey at the Washington Institute, told The Media Line.

Turkey’s constitution allows for an election to be delayed only during wartime.

If the election is delayed, then Turkey would enter a period of unconstitutional rule, according to experts.

Last week, Reuters reported that three anonymous government officials said that Erdogan was leaning toward holding elections on June 18.

Sezer said that the courts could not reverse decisions made by the electoral board, although lawyers have said the board does not have the authority to set an election date.

“It’s still very complicated and we don’t have clear rules,” Sezer said. “Since we live in Turkey, we do not know or do not expect that everything will be based on law.”

He believes the date of the election will be clearer by late in March and said that at least half of the Turkish population would be against a delay.

“The options are so limited, no one can expect what will happen,” Sezer said.

Turkish citizens have expressed anger across the country over the government’s response to the earthquake.

Over the weekend, fans at two football matches chanted that Erdogan should resign.

The Turkish president has tried to address the anger, saying that people in the region will get new homes and financial support, as well as acknowledging “shortcomings” in the country’s response to the earthquake and its aftermath, although he has put blame on poor weather and damaged infrastructure for what some asserted was his government’s slow response.

However, delaying the election for a year could make matters worse for Erodgan if his government fails to address the widespread needs of survivors and for the reconstruction of the region, as well as the dire economic situation in the country.

There are risks for opposition parties as well, six of which have formed a coalition but have not declared who their candidate will be.

Cagaptay says that it appears that the opposition is trying to capitalize on a major disaster, and there could be such an opportunity if they highlight that Erdogan is violating the constitution.

Hurriyet Daily News reported on Tuesday that the leader of Erdogan’s coalition partner in parliament accused the leader of the main opposition party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), of exploiting the earthquake.

“Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, what is more important to you: being a presidential candidate or showing empathy and respect to the Turkish people and Turkey?,” said Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli.

Cagaptay said the earthquake is changing the image of Erdogan, who had been seen as a leader who was both respected and feared while also taking care of his citizens.

“That brand is coming undone,” Cagaptay said.

“The effective, efficient part is not there. Erdogan keeps blaming the large number of fatalities on the cold weather, the size of the earthquake,” he said.