TheMediaLine
WHAT WOULD YOU GIVE TO CHANGE THE MISINFORMATION
about the
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR?
Finland’s NATO Entry Could Decrease Russian Pressure on Turkey, Analysts Say

Finland’s NATO Entry Could Decrease Russian Pressure on Turkey, Analysts Say

Finland’s expected entry into NATO is likely to result in decreased Russian military presence around Turkey – but Ankara is still wary of approving Sweden’s bid

Turkey and Hungary recently said that they would allow Finland to join NATO after months of delaying a decision. Analysts told The Media Line that Finland’s entry into NATO will most likely decrease Russian pressure on Turkey and result in Russia moving troops away from Turkish territory.

Following a meeting with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Friday that Turkey would ratify Finland’s application for NATO membership.

Turkey had previously raised concerns over Finland and Sweden’s bids to join the military alliance due to accusations that the two countries were supporting terrorism and limiting exports to Turkey.

Erdoğan did not say when Turkey would approve Sweden’s application.

Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, the director of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara office, told The Media Line that the Russian military will eventually be forced to position troops along its northwestern border if Finland and Sweden join NATO.

“They would need to shift resources from elsewhere,” Ünlühisarcıklı said. “In the future, when they’re distributing their troop presence, they would need to shift some of it to the Baltics and some of it would come from [near] Turkey.”

Russia has been on opposing sides to Turkey on several battlefields, including in Libya and in the Nagorno-Karabakh region that has been the site of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The most threatening conflict for Turkey is the civil war in bordering Syria, where the Kremlin has backed Syrian President Bashar Assad while Ankara has been the largest backer of the Syrian opposition.

Turkey’s military presence in northern Syria has helped to protect millions of internally displaced people who could be at risk if Assad’s forces, backed by Russia, manage to regain control of the territory.

Such a reality would pose a major risk to the Turkish government, which would likely face another refugee crisis on its borders. Turkey has already hosted more than three million refugees from the war, resulting in tensions with the local Turkish community and pressure on Erdoğan.

Turkey’s presence in Syria has also come at a major cost, both financially and to its military. Thirty-three Turkish soldiers were killed in just one airstrike in 2020.

Alan Makovsky, a former senior Middle East staffer for the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, told The Media Line that the possibility of Russia moving its troops away from areas close to Turkey has been a talking point between Ankara and those who support the Nordic countries’ bids.

Makovsky, who is now a senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, said that Turkey’s support for Finland’s bid would decrease but not completely remove diplomatic pressure on Ankara from the US.

“It’s seen as a half-measure and it won’t particularly move the needle on policy towards Turkey,” Makovsky said. “They want to see the full package. Sweden is a very important country for NATO.” He noted that Sweden has done exercises with NATO and has been a partner in the military alliance.

Washington welcomed the decision by Turkey to support Finland’s application but also urged it to ratify Sweden’s as well, according to a statement from US national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

“Sweden and Finland are both strong, capable partners that share NATO’s values and will strengthen the Alliance and contribute to European security. The United States believes that both countries should become members of NATO as soon as possible,” Sullivan wrote in a statement.

Finland’s entry into NATO now seems likely. After delaying a parliamentary vote on Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids, Hungary’s ruling party announced on Friday that it would support Finland’s application.

Each NATO member must ratify a potential new member’s application, effectively giving a veto to member states.

One of Ankara’s main criticisms of Sweden is the presence there of people Turkey considers terrorists, namely those connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militia. Turkey also believes that individuals connected to the failed 2016 coup in Turkey are residing in Sweden.

The PKK, which operates in Turkey, is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the European Union, of which Sweden is a member.

Along with the PKK, Turkey is also calling for the deportation of people it believes are members of a network led by Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania.

The Turkish government insists Gülen is behind the bloody coup that attempted to overthrow Erdogan. Gülen denies the accusations.

In an attempt to respond to Turkey’s concerns, Sweden and Finland signed an agreement with Turkey last June. Erdoğan has accused Stockholm of not fulfilling its promises.

Six months after the deal was signed, a Swedish court blocked the deportation of a Turkish journalist whom Turkey accused of being connected to Gülen.

Some analysts believe that Erdoğan’s objections are meant to appeal to his nationalist base and increase his popularity, which has waned in response to a worsening economy and criticism over the country’s response to last month’s earthquakes. The May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections are expected to be the biggest threat to Erdoğan’s hold on Turkey since he first came to power 20 years ago.

Ünlühisarcıklı said that Erdoğan’s resistance to admitting Sweden will likely be a boost to his campaign.

“There’s a very challenging election ahead of him. If he has to make a choice, he’d rather win at the domestic level than the international level, because he doesn’t have the luxury to lose votes,” Ünlühisarcıklı said.

According to Makovsky, it is unlikely that Turkey will change its position on Sweden until after the elections, which outside groups seem to recognize.

“I believe there will be a resignation that nothing is likely to happen before elections. But once the elections are over, I think the pressure will reignite,” Makovsky said.

TheMediaLine
WHAT WOULD YOU GIVE TO CHANGE THE MISINFORMATION
about the
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR?
Personalize Your News
Upgrade your experience by choosing the categories that matter most to you.
Click on the icon to add the category to your Personalize news
Browse Categories and Topics