Gulf States Mum on Russo-Ukrainian War

If Moscow loses, countries that stood by it will suffer US and European ire, and if Moscow wins, those that opposed it will be in a very embarrassing position, Egyptian professor says

The six member-states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are taking a neutral position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, declining to side with either party.

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were satisfied with a statement delivered on their behalf by Riyadh’s representative during a session of the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, ahead of an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Ukraine.

“The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are following with concern the developments of the current events in Ukraine, and affirm their support for all efforts aimed at resolving the crisis through dialogue and diplomacy, and to continue working to implement the agreements concluded between the concerned parties approved by the Security Council in its [February 2015] Resolution 2202 [on Ukraine], its support for international efforts to reduce tension and escalation and initiate calm measures to ensure the return of stability and allow for political discussions that lead to a political solution to the crisis,” the statement went

The foreign ministries of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman did not respond to inquiries sent by The Media Line, nor did they respond to any other media outlet, according to informed sources.

“The GCC states stress the need to adhere to the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations, especially the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means, to refrain from the use or threat of force, and to respect the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of states,” according to the statement of the countries of the Cooperation Council.

“The GCC states would like to confirm the depth of the relations they have with all concerned parties, and from this standpoint, we call on all parties to calm down, exercise restraint, and work to end this crisis as soon as possible and through diplomatic means, in a manner that meets the interests of all parties, in order to spare civilians the consequences of escalation and further humanitarian difficulties,” the Gulf statement concluded.

As of Thursday evening, a single move came regarding the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, from the State of Qatar, where Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani held separate phone conversations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba.

“We express our country’s concern over the recent escalation and its repercussions, and we urge all parties to exercise restraint, resolve the dispute through dialogue and diplomatic methods, and settle international disputes by peaceful means to avoid further escalation. The safety of civilians must be preserved,” Sheikh Mohammed told the two men, the Qatar News Agency reported.

As for the foreign ministries of the Gulf states, no statements were issued individually, nor did any country comment on the military movements and the recent entry of Russian forces into Ukraine.

The official and private Gulf newspapers and media also took a neutral stance, refraining from using any terms condemning one party or another and staying committed to hosting ministers and analysts from all Russian and Ukrainian parties.

Saad Khaled, a Bahraini political analyst, told The Media Line, “The Gulf states are forced to adopt a neutral stance, as they are faced with a set of intersecting common interests.

“We are talking about the common interests of the Gulf states with the Western and Eastern camps, and they saw the way the Europeans and Americans dealt with the Russian and Ukrainian file, and they did not interfere as it is a matter related to the NATO countries,” Khaled added.

“The GCC countries look at the failure of the American and European administration to deal seriously with the Ukrainian file, and there is a failure to take into account the statements of Russian President Vladimir Putin,” he continued.

“The Gulf states have gone through many experiences with the current US administration, the Europeans and the Russians, and therefore they will not support any party at the expense of another. They will wait for what will happen and how things will turn out, and they will wait for the results of the talks and the current latest escalation, and what will happen in the field in Ukraine,” he said.

“The GCC states will remain as an observer and will not take any position that harms the interests of the Gulf states in the region. Interests must be preserved with all parties,” Khaled said.

Dr. Munif al-Malafekh, a Saudi political analyst, told The Media Line that “the war of Russia and Ukraine will continue until [President Vladimir] Putin achieves his goals, and what happened with the entry of Russian forces into Ukraine was expected.

“The Gulf states have interests with everyone. They are trying not to interfere in matters in which they cannot interfere. It is a matter of national security for Russia and Europe, and therefore they will not interfere,” he emphasized.

“There will be no Gulf move to solve the crisis; it will remain neutral until it’s over. The US administration and European partners must solve this crisis that concerns them alone,” Malafekh said.

Amjad Taha, an expert on strategic political affairs and regional head of the British Center for Middle East Studies and Research, told The Media Line: “The Arab Gulf states always prefer the path of dialogue and solutions through understandings and discussions, and always urge respect for diplomatic methods and good neighborliness.

“The Gulf countries have a far-sighted view of wars. They believe that they should listen to Russian demands that NATO forces not approach, in parallel with preserving Ukrainian sovereignty over their lands, and therefore each side has its legitimate demands,” he added.

“Economic solutions are one way to resolve security, military, and political crises, whether in the region or in Europe, and perhaps this is what the Gulf states are waiting for, and until then they will remain silent about the crisis,” Taha said.

Nader Ababneh, a Jordanian journalist specializing in Gulf affairs, pointed out to The Media Line that “the Gulf states take into account their interests, as they have no interest in interfering in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

“What is happening with the current rise in oil prices is in their interest. They will not interfere because they cannot intervene in the first place. The Europeans and Americans are intransigent on the file of Ukraine’s [possible] accession to NATO and the presence of forces from the alliance on its soil, and Ukraine wants to remain cohesive,” the Jordanian said

“Just as the countries of Europe, America, and Russia have not directly sided with the Gulf countries in their war in Yemen and were content with statements condemning the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Gulf countries will respond solely by urging the parties to calm down,” Ababneh said.

Ahmed Jawhar, an Omani journalist who specializes in political affairs, told The Media Line that “Oman in particular, does not prefer military solutions, and it has its interests with all parties, so it only hopes that this crisis will end soon, without major casualties, and [Oman] will not interfere with any party or issue any statement aimed at any of the parties to the conflict.”

From Kuwait, Hammam al-Enezi, another journalist specializing in political affairs, told The Media Line that “this conflict has its historical, political and security reasons. The Gulf states were not a party to it at any time, and therefore will not interfere, as they have economic and security agreements with all parties.”

“The Gulf countries are waiting for what will happen with the Iranian nuclear deal. This is their only focus,” Enezi said.

Dr. Yasser al-Ashry, an Egyptian professor of political science, told The Media Line, “Not only the Gulf states but most of the world’s countries will stand neutral. It is a struggle for existence for Russia, which seeks to restore Soviet lands, and between the major world powers.”

He continued, “It will not be in the interest of any country to interfere in this matter. If Russia loses, the countries that stood by it will be in the crosshairs of American and European fire, and if Russia wins, the countries that stood against it will be in a very embarrassing position.”