Rumors of negotiations to form a new unity government slowly gained momentum over the past month in Israel. The new potential partnership would pair Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud with centrist parties Yesh Atid, under the current opposition leader, Yair Lapid, and National Unity, under former Defense Minister Benny Gantz. Current Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, himself from Likud, is considered to be leading the charge toward unity.
Gallant’s primary alleged reason is to slow down the coalition’s judicial reform proposals and ensure widespread consensus before moving them forward. This comes amid growing dissent and mass protests, which many observers have labeled a threat to Israel’s national security.
Lt. Col. (ret.) Dr. Eyal Pinko from the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University told The Media Line that from the outside, “Israel’s enemies are attempting to fuel the fires dividing the country while testing military boundaries at the borders.”
“They’re preparing for war—for sure;” says Pinko. “And they are provoking just to test what we are doing.”
Among other issues, a centrist unity government would also be in a better position to handle conditions for a burgeoning normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia—as brokered by Washington.
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So what needs to happen for a unity coalition to take shape? Are any of the options currently feasible? Dr. Amir Fuchs, senior researcher with the Israel Democracy Institute., outlines three paths that are technically possible, though all are highly unlikely.
One path includes any 61 members of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, coming together for a “constructive vote of no-confidence” in which they simultaneously dissolve the current government and elect a new one. But this would require several coalition lawmakers to risk severe sanctions from their own parties.
“They have to have a 61-member majority and a new government formed with a new prime minister and all the ministers and guidelines for the new government,” says Fuchs. “That’s why it’s almost impossible to achieve that kind of thing. It never happened in Israel.”
The second method is if a Knesset majority votes to dissolve the coalition and immediately trigger elections. However, this too would require several lawmakers to rebel against their parties.
The third—and arguably least likely option, is that Yesh Atid and National Unity join the current coalition without dissolving or reforming a government. This would dilute the far-right parties’ influence and pave the way to dealing with the Saudis.
But Gantz and Lapid have repeatedly stated they will never form a government with Likud as long as Netanyahu is leading it, and that if there’s a deal with Saudi Arabia that represents Israel’s security interests, they would support it from the opposition.
Neither Lapid nor Gantz have interest in legitimizing Netanyahu’s recent actions, particularly as the prime minister stands trial on corruption charges.
Amid rising national tensions and international challenges, the prospects of forming a unity government in Israel seem increasingly remote. Despite the high stakes and seemingly insurmountable obstacles, both the coalition and the opposition appear to be standing firm in their convictions. As Israel faces threats both external and internal, the question lingers: Can a political compromise be reached for the greater good of the nation? For now, the odds appear to be against it.