Iraq is expecting an extremely hot summer, with nearly 40% of its electricity production lost following the halt in Iranian gas supplies and US President Donald Trump’s decision in February 2025 to cancel the waiver granted to Iraq for importing electricity and gas from Iran as part of a package of sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran.
According to Iraqi government data, the halt in gas flow and electricity imports from Iran will result in Iraq losing 11,000 megawatts of energy per day, reducing its daily production to approximately 17,000 megawatts. Iraq needs approximately 45,000 megawatts per day to cope with the country’s sweltering summer.
Additionally, Iraq’s crisis next summer is exacerbated by the severe impact of global warming. Average temperatures have risen by approximately 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 20 years, often reaching over 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). This means there is an urgent need to operate air conditioning and cooling systems. Meanwhile, Basra Governorate in Iraq records the second-highest temperatures in the world every summer.
The Iraqi government has attempted to explore alternatives, including importing gas from Turkmenistan. However, this plan has encountered several obstacles, including the passage of gas through Iranian territory. Furthermore, increasing Iraq’s domestic gas production would require at least four years before it could be used.
The Iraqi government has also sought to import liquefied natural gas through the Port of Zubair in Basra Governorate. However, according to official Iraqi data, this solution would require five months. This means it will not be implemented before July 2025 at the earliest. This is because the summer season, with peak energy demand in Iraq, begins in June, July, and August of each year.
Iraq imports approximately 300 megawatts of energy per day from Turkey and is seeking to increase this to 600 megawatts next summer. However, this is still insufficient to compensate for the shortfall caused by the ban on gas and energy imports from Iran.
With declining electricity supplies, Iraqis are increasingly relying on private generators, which are large power generators owned by individuals who sell electricity to citizens based on the amperage. However, this option means additional monthly financial burdens for Iraqis. The price of one ampere in Iraq ranges from 20,000 dinars ($15) in the winter to more than 35,000 dinars ($26) in the summer. A typical home requires at least 15 amperes to operate a small air conditioner, refrigerator, some lighting, and a television. This translates to a monthly cost of at least $390, which is equivalent to the average monthly salary of a regular private sector employee in Iraq. Operating a packed house at full capacity requires more than 80 amperes, which translates to $2,000 per month, beyond the means of most Iraqis.
In addition to the high cost, generators contribute to worsening environmental pollution by emitting harmful gases, and they also cause noise pollution in residential areas. Solar energy is a relatively new and underutilized system in Iraq.
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Since February 2025, when Iranian gas imports were banned, we have been unable to fully operate our generators. We have been forced to shut some down.
Engineer Rafid Al-Obaidi, an operator of one of Iraq’s power plants, told The Media Line, “Since February 2025, when Iranian gas imports were banned, we have been unable to fully operate our generators. We have been forced to shut some down.”
Al-Obaidi added, “Over the past years, we have not seen any development in our electricity systems. The equipment we have is very old, and it consumes gas; at times, more than its modern counterparts. With widespread corruption in this area over the past 22 years, we have not yet been able to modernize this system, and now it will come to a complete standstill.”
It will definitely be a hot summer, and there are no real solutions. Essentially, we have a major problem with the transmission of electricity due to the weakness of the networks, and the fact that most of them are outdated, which makes the crisis much greater than expected.
He also said, “It will definitely be a hot summer, and there are no real solutions. Essentially, we have a major problem with the transmission of electricity due to the weakness of the networks, and the fact that most of them are outdated, which makes the crisis much greater than expected.”
Al-Obaidi also said, “The government’s electricity supply is expected to not exceed four hours per day, and we expect it to not exceed two hours to begin with. This means that most Iraqi regions will be without electricity for 20-22 hours per day, relying on private and public generators.”
The government hasn’t informed us whether it will provide us with more subsidized diesel this year to compensate for the electricity shortage. We’ll have to run the generators longer.
Jaafar Al-Ahli, a private generator owner in Iraq, told The Media Line, “The government hasn’t informed us whether it will provide us with more subsidized diesel this year to compensate for the electricity shortage. We’ll have to run the generators longer.”
He continued, “More power outages mean more hours of operation for us, which means more operating and maintenance costs. We’ll even need more generators to operate. The cost of one ampere may reach 50,000 Iraqi dinars ($38), which means many won’t be able to increase the number of amperes they purchase from us monthly.”
He added, “Perhaps if the Iraqi government provided us with more subsidized diesel, we could then provide electricity at reasonable prices. This hasn’t happened in recent years, and we don’t expect it to happen this year either.”
Mohammed Al-Hindawi, a petroleum engineer working for the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, told The Media Line, “All projects underway to increase gas imports or production will require between two and five years, especially regarding stopping the flaring of associated gas, or even establishing platforms to import liquefied natural gas.”
He continued, “Iranian gas was supplied via pipelines, and therefore Iraq had not previously considered modernizing the liquefied natural gas system at its ports, despite the recurring threats to halt energy supplies, both from the Iranian side and due to US pressure and sanctions on Iran.”