Israeli President’s Planned Visit to Turkey Opens New Chapter in Relations
Isaac Herzog’s visit at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could lead to warmer ties between the two regional powers
Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, is expected to visit Turkey soon, as ties between the two regional powers grow closer.
In an interview with private Turkish broadcaster NTV last Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the early February visit.
“This visit could open a new chapter in relations between Turkey and Israel,” Erdogan said in the NTV interview, adding that he is “ready to take steps in Israel’s direction in all areas, including natural gas.”
Herzog’s trip is seen as a step toward warmer relations with Turkey, as Erdogan seems eager to repair ties with Israel, and other countries in the Middle East.
Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told The Media Line that the visit is significant and both sides are on board to bury the hatchet.
“This visit will be a turning point for the bilateral relations. Erdogan’s invitation to Herzog to Ankara and the Israeli president’s eagerness to mend ties by giving a green light to this visit should be considered as a good start,” he said.
Yusuf Erim, chief political analyst and editor-at-large for Turkish public broadcaster TRT World, told The Media Line that the “top-level visit marks a significant upgrade in dialogue between Turkey and Israel.”
Erim says that the process was “stagnant,” but this meeting will “jump-start rapprochement between both countries and open the door for a reciprocal visit by the Turkish president.”
Ties between Turkey and Israel – once close regional allies – reached their nadir after the death of 10 civilians in an Israeli raid on a blockade-busting Turkish flotilla carrying aid for the Gaza Strip in 2010. Relations broke down again in 2018, after Turkey, enraged by the US decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem, once again recalled its ambassador from Israel, prompting Israel to also recall its envoy.
“The major flashpoint is the Palestine issue, which is more a multilateral issue. Bilaterally, interests between both countries have remained aligned, even throughout the past decade when relations were at a low. The sustainability of the rapprochement process will depend on how well Turkey can compartmentalize the Palestine issue and how Israel’s policy towards Palestinians will be,” Erim said.
He says that Turkey’s potential revived partnership with Israel is beneficial to both countries as they have historically had strong relations and were the “backbone of America’s Middle East security architecture.”
However, a new president in the White House, rapidly shifting regional alliances, and changing international policy toward the region “resulted in a convergence of interests that are pushing both countries towards each other once again,” he said.
Bilaterally, interests between both countries have remained aligned, even throughout the past decade when relations were at a low. The sustainability of the rapprochement process will depend on how well Turkey can compartmentalize the Palestine issue and how Israel’s policy towards Palestinians will be.
“The understanding that there will be less US engagement in the Middle East in the future, a possible return to the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) will result in more aggressive regional behavior by Iran, and the reality that bottlenecks in eastern Mediterranean maritime and gas issues that can only be solved by dialogue have created suitable conditions for a rapprochement,” said Erim.
Erdogan is seen by many in the Middle East as a champion of the Palestinian cause, with fiery rhetoric and scathing public criticism of Israel over the years, but he seems poised to turn the page on the tense relations.
“Israel’s primary objective is to put an end to Hamas’ operational existence on Turkish territory and to seeing the end of the anti-Israeli rhetoric in the Turkish political and public discourse. With these bold steps Israel believes [it is possible] to launch a genuine people-to-people-based normalization,” said Yanarocak.
Turkey’s economy is ailing, with inflation soaring in Turkey to the highest level since Erdogan came to power almost two decades ago, while the lira continues its out-of-control downward spiral.
“The Turkish economy is steadily deteriorating, in addition to the fact that Ankara suffers from strategic isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, the decision-makers in Ankara feel the necessity to put an end to Turkey’s self-imposed ‘Precious Loneliness’ foreign policy doctrine. This new approach dictates a very serious U-turn in Turkish foreign policy which forces Ankara to mend her fences not only with Jerusalem but also with Cairo, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh,” explained Yanarocak.
Isaac Herzog may be following in his father Chaim Herzog’s footsteps. The elder Herzog visited Ankara in 1992 while serving as Israel’s sixth president in a trip that is credited with contributing to strengthening the relationship between the two countries.
Now, many observers say he could reprise the role his father played 30 years ago, and work to help improve ties, and start a new page in what has been a tumultuous relationship.
While I don’t expect any landmark agreements or significant breakthroughs during this visit, it does pave the way for the Turkish president to diplomatically reciprocate with a trip to Tel Aviv where bilateral talks with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett could seriously advance normalization
While the Israeli president’s position is largely ceremonial, Erim says Herzog’s views on the two-state solution, and being Erdogan’s counterpart makes him the ideal Israeli politician to kickstart the relationship. The diversity of the Israeli government also creates opportunities for further dialogue between parliamentarians and officials from both countries. “While I don’t expect any landmark agreements or significant breakthroughs during this visit,” Erim says, “it does pave the way for the Turkish president to diplomatically reciprocate with a trip to Tel Aviv where bilateral talks with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett could seriously advance normalization.”
“From an aspect of his position as president and his views on certain flashpoint issues, I don’t think there is anyone better suited than President Herzog to bring both countries to the table for normalization,” Erin said.
Both sides say that mutual trust has been compromised, and it will take real effort from the two governments to rebuild a fractured relationship.
Turkey’s policy shift toward Israel is seen as part of a larger policy shift in Ankara’s regional approach, where it is attempting to mend fences with countries in the region like Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan has said that Turkey hopes to maximize cooperation with Egypt and Gulf nations “on a win-win basis.”
During a visit to Turkey by UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan last November, the de facto leader of the Emirates signed several deals, signaling growing business and diplomatic ties.
Erdogan is planning a visit to the UAE in February. “February 14 is an important date for us. Hopefully, our visit to the UAE on this date will be the beginning of a new era,” he said during last week’s televised interview.
Israel will not sacrifice its strategic partnership with Greece and Cyprus for a fragile normalization with Turkey
Israel and a group of Mediterranean countries, including Turkey’s archrival Greece, have been working on a joint pipeline project to deliver gas from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to Europe. Ankara strongly objected to the venture and staked its own territorial claims to the region’s energy wealth.
The Biden administration reportedly opposes the project, which was supported by the administration of former US President Donald Trump.
Despite the thaw in ties, Yanarocak says Israel will not allow the break up of the EastMed pipeline project.
“Israel will not sacrifice its strategic partnership with Greece and Cyprus for a fragile normalization with Turkey,” he said.
Erin views Israel’s role in this matter as a broker in bridging the gap with Turkey’s Mediterranean adversaries.
“Maritime rights in the eastern Mediterranean is also an important issue for Turkey where Israel can play an important role. A demarcation of maritime territory between both countries would be a coveted result for Turkey. Israel’s strong ties with Greece and Greek Cypriots could also position Tel Aviv as a future mediator in solving the East Med conundrum,” he added.
