Arab Israeli Lawmaker Pledges To Pass Bill To Bring Down Government

Joint List lawmaker Sami Abu Shehadeh’s threat to present and pass a bill on Wednesday to dissolve the Knesset is not likely to occur, experts say

Israeli lawmaker Sami Abu Shehadeh of the Joint List party announced that he will present a bill on the floor of the Knesset on Wednesday to dissolve the country’s parliament.

“I will submit the Knesset Dispersal Law next Wednesday. This bad government must fall,” he announced on Friday.

Shehadeh’s threat came a day after government coalition member Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, from the left-wing Meretz party, announced that she was quitting the coalition. This would have reduced the government to a minority in the parliament.

However, earlier this week, after meeting with Alternate Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Zoabi walked back the move and remained in the coalition.

For that reason, according to Dr. Ilana Shpaizman, a lecturer in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, it is most likely that Shehadeh’s announcement that he would pass a bill to dissolve the Knesset won’t materialize.

She told The Media Line that this is a strategic issue because if such a bill is submitted and fails, the same bill cannot be submitted for another six months.

“They need to calculate to submit the bill when they think that it has the most chances for it to pass,” she said.

They would prefer to bring down the existing government but to be able to form an alternative government without having to go to elections

“Once Zoabi said that she is not going to leave the coalition, the chances are very slim,” Shpaizman said.

Some members of Israel’s government understand that the coalition is very vulnerable, and they are trying to extract benefits from the prime minister and the alternate prime minister, according to Dr. Amichai Magen, head of the Diplomacy and Conflict Studies Program at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Herzliya.

“What we saw with Knesset member Zoabi is that attempt, which we can call political extortion. It seems to have paid off quite nicely for her,” he told The Media Line.

Shpaizman agrees. She said, “It seems that every member of the Knesset can just wake up one day and decide to leave the coalition.”

Magen believes that, given the reportedly generous promises that Zoabi got, other coalition members are likely to follow suit.

“If they are thinking a couple of steps ahead, they will understand that if this government falls, it is very unlikely that they will return to a position of power in the next government,” he said of the members of the government coalition.

However, added Shpaizman, “it seems that all the parties in the coalition are committed for the government to remain in office and to maintain the majority.”

They are working very hard to keep this majority, she said, citing Minister of Religious Services Matan Kahana decision last week to resign from his post and return to the Knesset because coalition officials were afraid that another member of the Yamina party headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett would decide to leave the coalition.

For a Knesset dissolution bill to pass, it needs to receive the approval of a majority of lawmakers in all three readings. If the bill passes, it will immediately lead to new elections.

If the bill is proposed and approved with a vote of the majority of lawmakers, it will take about six months from that point until a new government is formed.

After the bill passes, there are three months until new elections, and then about two months for the coalition to form a new majority, with the option of an extension.

Magen points out that the opposition bloc led by the Likud Party and its head, Opposition Leader Binyamin Netanyahu, would probably rather dissolve the government without having to go to elections.

“They would prefer to bring down the existing government but to be able to form an alternative government without having to go to elections,” he said.

That is done through a vote of no confidence in the coalition, which is a very different procedure, clarified Shpaizman.

If lawmakers submit and pass a vote of no confidence, as opposed to a bill to dissolve the Knesset, then they can try to form a new government among the existing Knesset members.

If that happens, Shpaizman explains, “all of the Knesset members remain in their seats, but you have a new prime minister and a new government.”

However, that can only happen if there is a Knesset member who can form a new government with the support of a majority of the lawmakers.

In order to do that, said Magen, they would have to bring on board one of the parties of the current coalition.

Magen held up as an example Defense Minister Benny Gantz and his Blue and White party, and Gideon Saar and his New Hope party.

“If they leave the coalition and make a deal with Netanyahu, then they could form an alternative government without having to go to elections,” he said.

Israel had all these elections in 2019-2020 because no one could form a majority coalition

However, Shpaizman believes that such a task is almost impossible.

“Israel had all these elections in 2019-2020 because no one could form a majority coalition,” she said.

Looking at the parties currently in the opposition, she added: “The chances of the Arab Joint List joining Netanyahu for him to be the prime minister are very slim.”

The only candidate that could potentially get that majority, she suggests, is Gantz, because the Haredi Orthodox parties might vote for him.

But for this to happen, she continued, “the Haredi parties should tell Netanyahu that they no longer support him, and this is also difficult.”

Magen notes that public opinion surveys show that Likud is likely to become significantly stronger if Israel goes to elections now.

Regardless, Magen believes that Netanyahu would prefer to bring down this government without having to go to elections, “but if they have to, they are prepared to do it,” he said.