As another round of war in Gaza approaches, the demand for more recruits and the passage of Israel’s new national budget have intensified pressure on ultra-Orthodox Jewish leaders. Members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition recently threatened to dissolve the government and block the 2025 budget if they were not guaranteed that ultra-Orthodox men would not be forced to serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
However, in a recent test of political strength in the Israeli Knesset, these parties ultimately backed the budget despite lacking assurances regarding military exemptions. In doing so, they preserved Netanyahu’s coalition and their own influence within it. Rabbi Dov Lando, a leader of the Lithuanian branch of ultra-Orthodox Judaism in Israel, advised Knesset members not to oppose the budget, leading most factions to withdraw their threats to block it.
Netanyahu’s government must pass the budget by March 31; otherwise, the government will be automatically dissolved, triggering new elections.
Despite their longstanding opposition to mandatory IDF service, ultra-Orthodox leaders recognized they had no viable alternative. “They realize that they don’t have any better options than this government,” said Dr. Shuki Friedman, director-general of the Jewish People Policy Institute. “If they bring it to its end, they might find themselves in a coalition that excludes them altogether—one that might even force them into the army.”
They realize that they don’t have any better options than this government
The budget vote came down to practical considerations. Even without a formal guarantee of draft exemptions, rejecting the budget would have left the Haredi sector in a worse position, particularly regarding funding for ultra-Orthodox institutions, including yeshivot (Jewish religious schools).
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Since a major portion of Haredi funding comes from coalition agreements, religious institutions would face a severe financial crisis without a budget
Dr. Gilad Malach, a research fellow in the ultra-Orthodox program at the Israel Democracy Institute, explained that failing to pass the budget would have been disastrous for Haredi institutions. “If the budget failed to pass, Israel would have to operate on a temporary budget system, meaning the government could only spend one-twelfth of the previous year’s budget each month,” he said. “Since a major portion of Haredi funding comes from coalition agreements, religious institutions would face a severe financial crisis without a budget.”
Ultra-Orthodox leaders also acknowledged that Netanyahu cannot fully shield their constituents from the draft in the current political climate. “This doesn’t mean they’ve given up their argument,” said Dr. Shai Stern, a law professor at Bar-Ilan University and deputy chairperson at the Haredi Institute for Public Affairs. “It means they no longer believe there’s a political possibility to enact the draft law on their terms. They understand that their threats will not be exercised.”
They’re fighting a political rather than a security battle
As the IDF faces a shortage of recruits and the war in Gaza has increased the urgency of enlistment, the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service remains one of the most contentious issues in Israeli society. “If the IDF and Israeli politicians find a formula to recruit a significant portion of Haredi men, it will make a difference,” said Stern. “But right now, they’re fighting a political rather than a security battle.”
Some politicians have proposed civil service as an alternative to military enlistment for the ultra-Orthodox, but Stern argues that such compromises are no longer feasible after the October 7 attack by Hamas. “Before October 7, the Haredi side resisted civil service because they couldn’t understand why doing such a service was more important than studying the Torah,” he said. “They might be more open to it, but it’s too late. Secular and liberal factions are demanding military service.”
Meanwhile, ultra-Orthodox leaders continue to fight to maintain exemptions. Netanyahu’s government has been pushing to weaken the Supreme Court and limit the powers of the attorney general, a move that could benefit the Haredi sector. Friedman noted that removing Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara could further solidify ultra-Orthodox support for the coalition. “One of the reasons the government wants to remove her is that she is forcing them to block financial support for the ultra-Orthodox,” he said. “If they succeed in ousting her, they will eliminate an incentive for the Haredi parties to oppose the government.”
The ongoing war in Gaza may also shape their strategy. Malach pointed out that some ultra-Orthodox politicians believe delaying the draft law discussion until after the war could work in their favor. “If they wait until the emergency period passes, it might be easier to pass a more favorable law,” he said. “But the reality is that they simply don’t have the political power to enforce their demands.”
Stern emphasized that judicial reform remains a key objective for ultra-Orthodox parties. “Had the reform been approved, they might have had a better chance of securing exemptions from joining the IDF,” he noted. “But at this stage, their decision to support the budget was based on necessity rather than ideological victory.”
“Even though it looks like the government will pass the budget, some coalition members—like Itamar Ben-Gvir or members of United Torah Judaism—could still oppose it at the last moment to make a political statement,” Malach added. “They might want to show that they are standing firm, but ultimately, I believe they will assist in passing the budget.”
Despite the political maneuvering surrounding the budget, experts agree that this episode does not signal a fundamental change in the ultra-Orthodox stance on IDF service or their broader integration into Israeli society. “This is a moment of will on behalf of great parts of Haredi society,” Stern said. “But instead of handling it mildly, most politicians are trying to gain political benefits from the conflict. As a result, I believe it will remain a political battle rather than a true turning point.”