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Netanyahu Says He’s Formed a New Government Coalition. Here Are the Challenges to Its Stability.
Israel's Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu looks on after a speech at the Knesset's Plenum Hall during a session to elect the new speaker of the parliament in Jerusalem on December 13, 2022. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images)

Netanyahu Says He’s Formed a New Government Coalition. Here Are the Challenges to Its Stability.

Minutes before the deadline Netanyahu finalized complicated coalition agreements that indicate a "bumpy road" for Israeli government coalition  

Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu called Israel’s President Isaac Herzog close moments before midnight on Wednesday night to tell him that he had successfully assembled a government coalition.

“I wanted to inform you that, thanks to the immense public support we won in the elections, I have managed to set up a government which will take care of all the citizens of Israel. And I of course intend to establish it as quickly as possible,” Netanyahu told Herzog during the phone call.

Israel’s new government must be sworn in by January 2, 2023.

The formation of Israel’s 37th government, however, required a series of rocky negotiations between Netanyahu, the leader of the Likud party, which received the highest number of votes in the November 1 election, and the heads of the coalition member parties, ending with coalition agreements that were finalized a few minutes before the midnight deadline to announce the birth of the new government.

This indicates that the coalition partners, despite having few ideological differences, do not trust each other, and more specifically the junior partners do not trust the Likud, according to Dr. Ilana Shpaizman, a lecturer in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv.

In a coalition, trust between the partners is one of the most important elements, she told The Media Line.

“Partners should work together to promote policies, but at the same time they compete during the elections,” she noted.

Historically speaking, instability has always been a given for most governments because of the low threshold and the electoral system in Israel

Thus, each political partner constantly fears that the other partners might drift from the coalition agreement and promote the policies they want to promote, which could contradict the agreement, she explains.

“When the level of trust is low, they will suspect each other, prevent policies from being promoted and we are going to see many crises big or small. If they accumulate, the government might fall,” Shpaizman  said, adding that having such little trust can guarantee a very bumpy road for the incoming coalition, citing the example of the previous Netanyahu-Gantz government, which lasted 13 months.

Dr. Yonatan Freeman of the Department of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem says that is important to consider that the parties involved in the ruling coalition know what is at stake if they do not form a stable government, including the possibility of an alternative coalition or new elections.

“Historically speaking, instability has always been a given for most governments because of the low threshold and the electoral system in Israel,” he told The Media Line, pointing out that governments in Israel usually do not last a full four-year term.

During the coalition negotiations, which lasted for more than five weeks after Netanyahu was tasked by the president with forming a government, all the parties that will be part of the government demanded certain requirements in order to join.

“Negotiations are all about receiving support and giving something in return,” Freeman noted.

But some of these demands may cause conflict among the members of the coalition, endangering its stability.

Shpaizman says there are two main points of potential disagreement that could emerge within the government.

The first, she says, relates to policies concerning the Palestinians and West Bank land.

“Religious Zionism will try to promote more annexation, while Netanyahu will try to stop some of it because of the possible reaction of the EU or the US,” she said.

The second has to do with religion, Shpaizman says.

“The ultra-Orthodox parties will try to increase their funding and their autonomy, and the treasury will mostly try to block that,” she said.

Shpaizman says that there might also be some disagreement over the specific nature of the reform of the judiciary system, “but I do not believe it will break the government.”

Freeman thinks the main disagreement is over to what extent different leaders in the new government will have veto power over certain decisions in their own offices and/or certain policies that the entire government will enact.

Considering that, he notes that the main goal of every party is to show that it is bringing results to its own voters. “The more it is seen that the government is not stable, the more the demands will be by the different partners,” he added.

However, Freeman believes that Netanyahu will seek to have his government continue liberal policies when it comes to the economy and social life, but at the same time make sure there is a connection to tradition. “I also think that Netanyahu will seek to make sure the judicial branch continues to remain strong,” he said.

Shpaizman believes that Netanyahu has no “red lines” in terms of which policies he will allow his fellow coalition members to promote and cited the coalition agreements as proof of that.

In light of this, she believes that the only reason that Netanyahu might draw those “red lines” is if he feels a backlash coming from his public or from foreign actors.

“If Netanyahu will believe that his public is against something, he will draw the line. And if the Americans will be able to force him to give up on some initiatives planned in the West Bank, he will force the other partners to do so. But it will only come from outside not his own red lines,” she said.

In terms of the opposition, Freeman notes that it is currently not a major threat to the government. “I think that the opposition currently is weak, and not united enough,” he said.

He adds that the opposition may see leadership changes that could impact its strength, including encouraging and leading a public campaign that will seek to make changes.

Finally, he notes that the fact that some members of the opposition may join the coalition later on due to some sort of national emergency, or due to certain elements in the coalition cannot be ruled out.

 

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