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Russia and Ukraine Could End Up Fighting Each Other With Iranian-made Weapons
US 5th Fleet naval forces approach a fishing vessel smuggling explosive material to Yemen from Iran in international waters in the Gulf of Oman on Nov. 8. (US Navy photo by Lt. j.g. Kelly Harris)

Russia and Ukraine Could End Up Fighting Each Other With Iranian-made Weapons

The US reportedly is considering sending seized weapons from the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen to Ukraine 

The United States reportedly is considering a transfer of weapons that it has seized in recent months destined for the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen and sending them to Ukraine to be used in the battle against Russia, close to one year since the beginning of the conflict. The shipments were confiscated from smugglers in the Arabian Sea, but their suspected origin is Iran.

Iran has been actively providing Russia with weapons for its war on Ukraine; if the US plan to transfer Houthi-confiscated weapons to Ukraine becomes a reality, it would create a situation in which both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian war would be using weapons of Iranian origin.

According to UN resolution 2216 on Yemen adopted by the United Nations Security Council in 2015, after the start of the civil war in Yemen, all member states are to take necessary measures to prevent any sale or transfer of weapons for the benefit of the Houthi militia.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the confiscated weapons shipment that the US is considering handing over to Ukraine includes “more than 5,000 assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammunition, a small number of antitank missiles, and more than 7,000 proximity fuses.”

Assault rifles and missiles seized by the French Navy lay on the deck of a ship at an undisclosed location on Feb. 1, 2023. (US military’s Central Command)

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday that the war in Ukraine is consuming significant amounts of the alliance’s available ammunition. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain,” he said.

While sending the Houthi-confiscated weapons to Ukraine seems to be a practical solution, the alleged US plan may face many problems.

“It almost certainly does not have the support of the international community, as represented by, say, the UN,” according to Jack A. Kennedy, a research and analysis associate director covering the Middle East and North Africa desk of the S&P Global Market Intelligence Country Risk and Forecasting team.

Kennedy told The Media Line that providing offensive weaponry to Ukraine has been an issue that has divided member states in NATO, since some of the countries “have taken a less directly supportive stance for Ukraine or prefer to remain non-aligned between the US and Russia.”

Even if all the seized arms were transferred to Ukraine’s armed forces immediately, it would have a limited material effect on the current trajectory of the conflict

The plan also may run afoul of international law.

Johannes Riber, an analyst for the Institute for Strategy and War Studies at the Royal Danish Defense College and a doctoral fellow at the University of Copenhagen, points out that the UN resolution that directs the countries that are members of the Security Council to confiscate the weapons seized on their way to the Houthi rebels also states that all of the seized weapons should be disposed of.

Joe Macaron, an independent geopolitical analyst and consultant, said that giving the seized weapons to Ukraine could set a precedent for other countries to transfer arms from one conflict to another. “Other powers can do the same now, based on this US precedent,” he told The Media Line.

He added that the fact that the plan under consideration was leaked could mean either that it was someone’s intention to shoot down the idea before it becomes a policy, or that the leak could mean that the Biden administration is “testing the waters” and sending a public message to Tehran.

Riber says that if the transfer takes place, the munitions in question could indeed help Ukraine.

However, Kennedy believes that this boost would be limited. “Even if all the seized arms were transferred to Ukraine’s armed forces immediately, it would have a limited material effect on the current trajectory of the conflict,” he said.

He says that the reported numbers of weapons would be useful but are not nearly sufficient to alter the strategic balance.

“It is clear that there are Ukrainian and NATO concerns around the sustainability of artillery shell production and usage,” Kennedy said. He says he arrived at this conclusion based on the equipment that the Ukrainian government is currently requesting – which includes air defense, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, tanks and jets. This, he adds, “would be more reflective of understanding the kind of materiel transfer that would have a sustained impact.”

Since October, “Russia has increased the intensity of missile and UAV strikes on cities across Ukraine and has launched approximately 1,000 missiles that have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure. The speculated weapons transfers would have next to no impact in countering this,” Kennedy continued.

Taking into consideration the fact that such arms shipments likely would have no significant impact on the Ukrainian conflict, Macaron insists that the complicated alleged plan of the US government is “not worth the negative implications on the US image abroad.”

 

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