More than two years after talks over the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam came to an acrimonious halt, negotiations resumed this week in Cairo between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
However, two days later, the talks broke down again and ended without any agreement.
According to the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the failure to reach an agreement was due to the lack of a “tangible change in the Ethiopian positions.”
However, the Ethiopian foreign ministry framed the breakdown more positively, saying, “The parties exchanged views to reach a win-win situation.” It also said a new round of talks would be held in Addis Ababa in September.
Some analysts said that despite the lack of an agreement in the latest talks, there was still room for optimism.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, has been under construction since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary into the Nile, in northwestern Ethiopia near the Sudanese border. Now said to be 90% complete, the dam has sparked repeated protests from Egypt and Sudan, which fear that it will severely reduce the flow of water into the Nile, their primary water source. Ethiopia sees the dam as crucial to its development, as it will produce electricity to meet its own acute needs as well as enable electricity exports to neighboring countries.
Builders have completed three phases of dam-filling, and successfully generated electricity for the first time in February 2022. Engineers brought an additional turbine online in August that year.
Egypt in particular has expressed grave concerns over the dam. Some 90% of Egypt’s water comes from the Nile, and 85% from the Blue Nile. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi called water security a “red line” for his country.
Talks between the three countries broke down in April 2021. However, last month, el-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Sudan and agreed to renew talks, pledging to reach an agreement within four months.
Egyptian Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Hani Sewilam said the negotiations aimed to reach a “balanced and legally binding agreement on the rules of filling and operation of the GERD that caters to the interests and concerns of the three countries.”
Kareem Mostafa Abd El-Khalek, an Egyptian international relations expert, told The Media Line that the resumption of negotiations was a good sign. He said Egypt and Ethiopia had recently cooperated on efforts to end the conflict in Sudan and on their new, shared membership in the BRICS bloc of emerging markets.
Ethiopia has tried to change the rules by creating a new reality
However, el-Khalek said a successful agreement would ultimately depend on the “leaders’ visions, perceptions, and will.” Ethiopia’s intentions were crucial, he said.
“Ethiopia has tried to change the rules by creating a new reality,” el-Khalek said. He said Addis Ababa was seeking to maintain “the upper hand” over the dam, which was threatening the water security of the other countries.
For Sudan and especially for Egypt, which already suffers from water scarcity, the dam “is considered a matter of life and death,” he said.
Jiregna Tadese Terfa, a political analyst specializing in the region, told The Media Line that Ethiopia had already shown its goodwill by postponing its completion of the filling of the dam until October this year to enable Egypt and Sudan to receive enough water.
The old mindset among Egyptian scholars and politicians, which is that Egypt is the ‘gift of the Nile,’ could be a major challenge
Terfa said that the Egyptian position was difficult.
“The old mindset among Egyptian scholars and politicians, which is that Egypt is the ‘gift of the Nile,’ could be a major challenge,” he said.
Terfa said that Egyptians had heard a great deal of misinformation on the topic, making it hard “for the Egyptian leadership to convince the people to accept the proposal.”
If Egypt ultimately accepts a deal, Sudan will follow, Terfa said.
“Sudan will not be a big problem once Egypt returns to negotiations,” he said.
Both experts said that even without any conclusive agreement from the latest discussion, positive steps had been made toward resolving the long dam dispute.
“I firmly believe this negotiation will open the door to further discussions and mutual trust,” Terfa said.
El-Khalek said the matter was “complicated” and urged observers to “stay as optimistic as possible.”