Russian officials on Sunday reported that Ukraine launched a major attack involving nine US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System missiles and at least 60 drones. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that nine missiles were intercepted over Crimea, 57 drones were shot down in Krasnodar, Russia, and three drones were downed in Belgorod, Russia.
In Belgorod, a city of around 400,000 people located some 20 miles from the Ukraine border and around 43 miles north of Kharkiv, Ukraine, no casualties or damage were reported. This escalation comes amid Russia’s increased defensive measures in response to Ukrainian attacks since opening a new front in Kharkiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air force claimed to have destroyed 37 Russian drones overnight, with no injuries reported in affected regions.
The Ukraine-Russia war, sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has dragged on for over two years and has resulted in significant casualties on both sides, with no end in sight. As of early May 2024, reports suggest that up to 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, severely wounded, or are missing. Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses, with more than 130,000 military casualties. The United Nations has verified that at least 10,065 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 18,679 injured since the start of the conflict.
In Belgorod, barrages of rockets have recently been pounding the streets. On May 12, the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the Belgorod region issued six missile threat alerts. At 11:50 am, a missile struck a residential building in the Khargory District on Shchorsa Street, causing the entire third entrance of the multi-story building to collapse.
Half an hour later, while rescuers were working to clear the debris, the roof collapsed, burying personnel under the rubble. According to Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov, 20 people were injured, including a one-and-a-half-month-old baby and a 16-year-old teenager. Russia’s Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case on terrorism.
The Ukrainian authorities have not officially responded to statements by Russian law enforcement regarding Kyiv’s involvement in the shelling of Belgorod. Meanwhile, Ukrainian media have suggested that the collapsed building in Belgorod might have been blown up from the inside.
According to Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, an accidental detonation of a Russian air bomb could have caused the collapse. “I also consider the possibility that it could have been a Russian provocation to justify shelling peaceful Ukrainian cities and escalating the conflict,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
Since the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belgorod has faced regular shelling. The intensity of these attacks surged in the spring of 2024 amid the Russian presidential elections, Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and the offensive in the Kharkiv region. Governor Gladkov noted that over 300 apartments in 85 residential buildings across the city had been damaged.
To better understand the situation on the ground in Belgorod and how the shelling might affect the dynamics of the war, The Media Line spoke with a political scientist, a military expert, and an anonymous source who, for security reasons, did not want to be identified.
Since May 10, we’ve had shelling almost every day, multiple times a day
“Since May 10, we’ve had shelling almost every day, multiple times a day,” the anonymous source from Belgorod told The Media Line. “The intensity has been very high recently, especially in the Kharkiv Hill area—it’s a residential area, the same one where the building collapsed. That’s where most of the hits occur. Constant shelling with multiple launch rocket systems. Numerous strikes over several kilometers. It’s not targeted fire at specific objects, rather just random shelling without any specific goals,” he said.
The source mentioned that this large residential area has many hospitals, schools, and kindergartens. There are no military enlistment offices or facilities, and the population has less than a minute and a half to find shelter from the shelling. Many street shelters have recently been installed in the city, and an automatic door-opening system has been implemented to allow people to enter safe places quickly. However, the city’s air defense system does not intercept all the attacks.
I assume that the shelling is being carried out in retaliation for regular attacks on Ukrainian cities
“I assume that the shelling is being carried out in retaliation for regular attacks on Ukrainian cities, for actions of a much sharper nature. I do not rule out that the Ukrainian side is still trying to hit some targets too,” military expert David Sharp told The Media Line.
Sharp also commented on the recent unprecedented case of the collapsed entrance in Belgorod, where civilians died under the rubble after a missile strike.
“This specific case with the collapsed entrance and the fatalities raises many questions. For example, I am inclined to believe that this was not a strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces but a mistake by the Russians,” he added.
Sharp noted that repeated attacks are a severe media blow to the Kremlin.
“They claim everything is going according to plan, and here, a big city is being hit by missiles with civilian casualties. People start to wonder: ‘If the war is going according to plan, why can’t Russia protect us?’” Sharp said.
Nevertheless, the anonymous source told The Media Line that Belgorod residents notice and appreciate the state’s measures to protect the population.
“People are pleased when the air defense works because the missiles didn’t fall on anyone and didn’t cause damage. Of course, people are glad about the new shelters and the idea of opening entrances,” he shared.
The source said that people also have the opportunity to evacuate to temporary accommodation centers.
“They are available in Voronezh and Kursk. Many sent their children there at the beginning of the year, and those children are still there. It’s free, and the authorities even insisted that children be sent to other cities,” the source said.
“Of course, many want to relocate completely, but I understand it’s quite a complex operation,” he added.
Sharp did not rule out that the recent Russian offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region was also partly motivated by the desire to reduce the threat from Ukraine, including the threat of Ukraine shelling Belgorod.
Dr. Nikolai Topornin, an expert in international relations and geopolitics at Moscow University, emphasized that the Russian leadership always reacts harshly when civilian targets in Russian territory are attacked.
“Usually, this is followed by a massive combined missile attack on some objects on Ukrainian territory. Belgorod’s ongoing shelling could imply attempts to capture Kharkiv in the future. The Russian army will act more persistently in this direction to stop the shelling,” Topornin noted.
Sharp mentioned that the incident could harm Ukraine in terms of international support.
“The Western public, so to speak, does not like situations where it looks like deliberate shelling of cities. Therefore, I do not rule out that if there are more civilian casualties, the governments of Western and European countries will not ignore this,” he added.
According to Topornin, the shelling of Belgorod will not affect international support for Ukraine in this war.
“The West is well aware of the shelling of the border zone and Belgorod. Russia has testified to this at various levels, including at the UN. Nothing has changed. Even after the entrance collapse, the reaction was calm. Yes, everyone is against civilians suffering, but this does not affect real support for Ukraine. We see that the US and the EU continue to help with money and weapons,” he said.
Topornin noted that the Western public believes that since Ukraine has the right to self-defense, they should be allowed to defend themselves as much as their capabilities allow.
“Russia also hits civilian objects. What’s the big deal? This is war. And in war, unfortunately, such situations occur,” he noted.
Topornin added that despite Russia’s close ties with Iran and its interests in the Middle East, specifically in Syria, the situation in Ukraine today does not directly affect the situation in the Middle East.
“I wouldn’t say that Iran is a strategic partner of Russia here. Russia indeed needs a military base in Syria. The interests of Iran and Russia seem close but do not coincide; in the end, everyone will be on their own,” he said.
“The fact is that recently, Russia has been grouping with countries that do not favor the US. Russia is looking for allies with whom it can do business. That’s the most we can talk about. I think we shouldn’t exaggerate the deep interactions between Russia and Iran now,” Topornin added, emphasizing that Iranian Russian connections are irrelevant in these attacks.
Meanwhile, Sharp emphasized that Western countries, specifically the Biden Administration, are very wary of escalating the conflict with Russia.
“If they feel that there is any additional potential for confrontation with Russia—a nuclear power—in this situation, they will naturally let the Ukrainians know. Americans are afraid, hence the bans on using American weapons on Russian territory; hence the delays in the supply of military systems,” he noted.
Sharp shared that few Belgorod residents see Ukrainian actions as a response to the Russian army’s actions.
“Therefore, I fear it’s far from a rebellion against the Russian authorities. If problematic situations occurred in many Russian cities, especially in St. Petersburg and Moscow, then the question of protests against the government in Russia would be more relevant for discussion,” he said.
The anonymous source emphasized that everyone in Belgorod wants the shelling to end.
“We understand that it can only stop in one case—if the war ends,” he noted.
At the same time, the source told The Media Line that if Belgorod residents previously had a negative attitude towards the Russian authorities due to the start of the war, now there is growing negativity towards the Ukrainian side.
People don’t understand why residential buildings are being targeted. It creates hatred that wasn’t there initially
“People don’t understand why residential buildings are being targeted. It creates hatred that wasn’t there initially,” he said.
Despite the supposed absence of hostility from Belgorod residents towards Ukrainians and their understanding that the war must end, there have been no anti-war protests in Belgorod, the source said.
“Except for a few small solitary pickets in the early days,” he noted.