Turkey is set for a runoff election on May 28 after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan led over opposition rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in Sunday’s vote, but failed to achieve the outright majority needed to extend his 20-year rule. Neither candidate cleared the 50% threshold. The presidential election will determine Turkey’s future path, including its approach to democracy, management of a severe cost of living crisis, and relations with Russia, the Middle East, and the West. Erdoğan performed better than pre-election polls had predicted, and his ruling alliance is likely to win a majority in parliament, giving him an edge in the runoff. The election results reveal deep polarization in Turkey, with the next two weeks expected to bring market uncertainty and fluctuations in the local currency and stock market. The outcome of the runoff could have significant implications for Turkey’s international relations, with an Erdoğan victory likely to please Russia but unsettle the US and Europe.
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