An Israeli military investigation published on Thursday has revealed that the armed forces drastically underestimated Hamas’ capabilities prior to its October 7, 2023 attacks and “failed in its mission to protect Israeli civilians.”
The report, which examined intelligence, military strategy, and battle behavior before, during, and after the attack, noted that military commanders had focused their attention on other threats—particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon—and relied too heavily on defensive measures such as intelligence and barriers. This miscalculation led to a widespread lack of preparedness at the border, leaving Israel vulnerable to the assault that claimed 1,200 lives and took over 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
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The investigation further highlighted a long-standing belief that Hamas was not interested in a full-scale conflict and that any escalation would come with ample warning. “The belief was that Hamas could be influenced through pressures that would reduce its motivation for war, primarily by improving living conditions in the Gaza Strip,” the report stated. This assumption, which went unchallenged for years, proved disastrous.
Meanwhile, as the first phase of a ceasefire that began on January 19 nears its expiration in two days, opposition voices and civil society groups are intensifying calls for a national inquiry into the government’s failure on the deadliest single day in modern Israeli history. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has maintained that any such inquiry should only be launched once the war concludes. A statement from the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed that the military has not yet handed over its investigation findings to Netanyahu.