A recent national poll conducted by the Maariv newspaper reveals a potential shift in the Israeli political landscape, indicating that the opposition, alongside Benny Gantz’s National Unity party, could secure a substantial majority if elections were held today. According to the poll results, these parties could collectively win 76 seats out of the Knesset’s 120, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc significantly behind with only 44 seats.
The poll positions Gantz’s party at the forefront with 40 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party lags at 18 seats. The poll also projected the failure of far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party to surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold needed for Knesset representation. This marks a significant change from the last election, where Smotrich, in collaboration with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party, secured 14 seats. Presently, polls suggest that running independently, Ben-Gvir would receive 10 seats.
Other key players, according to the poll, include opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party with 12 seats, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu at 10, and Aryeh Deri’s ultra-Orthodox Shas party with 9 seats. The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party is projected to maintain 7 seats, with Arab lists Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al each expected to receive 5 seats. The left-wing Meretz party, currently not in the Knesset, is projected to win 4 seats.
Polling below the threshold and at risk of exclusion from the Knesset are Smotrich at 2.9%, the Arab Balad party at 1.4%, and the Labor party at 1%.