US, European, and Arab mediators are working to prevent escalating cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah from igniting a broader Middle East conflict. Iran and Israel exchanged threats Saturday, with Iran warning of an “obliterating” war if Israel targets Hezbollah.
Hopes for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza remain dim, which could help de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah. American and European diplomats are cautioning Hezbollah against underestimating Israel’s military capabilities, stressing that the US will not hold back Israeli leaders if they decide to launch an offensive into Lebanon.
Recent strikes between Israel and Hezbollah have slightly leveled off, providing a glimmer of hope for easing immediate fears. This development led the US to deploy an amphibious assault ship with a Marine expeditionary force to the region as a deterrent.
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Despite the temporary plateau in hostilities, former US diplomat Gerald Feierstein noted that Israel was still preparing for potential conflict, which could be of a different magnitude. Feierstein emphasized the message to Hezbollah: “Don’t think that you’re as capable as you think you are.”
Following Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, Hezbollah began launching rockets into northern Israel. Israel retaliated, leading to intensified violence and significant civilian displacement. This month, attacks increased after Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned of catastrophic consequences for Lebanon in case of a full-scale war, which could destabilize the entire region. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant acknowledged the need for readiness in all scenarios.
The Biden Administration says that both sides know a major escalation is undesirable, and that it has emphasized to Israeli officials that a second front in the conflict is not in Israel’s best interest.