Keren Setton maps [1] a Middle East in motion, where alliances look less like permanent architecture and more like scaffolding. With the prospect of a US-Iran war hanging over the region, President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” is meant to marshal diplomacy, security, and economics to prevent an explosion. The question is whether the initiative changes realities—or simply rebrands American power as regional capitals hedge and redraw red lines.
Saudi Arabia is the clearest case study. Once Washington’s cornerstone partner, Riyadh is now playing a multi-vector game: deeper engagement with Russia, cautious outreach to Iran, warmer ties with China, and a thaw with Turkey after years of rivalry. Dr. Yoel Guzansky says the kingdom is “making adjustments,” some more dramatic than others, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks the stature he believes Saudi Arabia deserves.
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The Iran file sharpens the stakes. After last summer’s short Israel-Iran war left Tehran weakened, Saudi leaders are watching for signs of regime instability while worrying Israel may emerge too dominant. In that environment, a US strike that cripples Iran could elevate Israel’s regional position.
Inside the Gulf, a rivalry is turning louder. Abu Dhabi has doubled down on the Abraham Accords and its projection from the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa. Riyadh, by contrast, is trying to reclaim primacy through economic centralization, energy leverage, and caution. Asher Fredman calls it an escalation toward “outright conflict,” with Yemen offering a glimpse of the friction.
Normalization with Israel remains possible, but the politics are harder: Gaza, Saudi public opinion, and Israel’s reluctance to take security risks. Read the full report [1] for Keren Setton’s close-up of how leverage, not loyalty, is becoming the region’s currency.