Iraqi voters have spoken, but the real contest has only just begun. In his report for The Media Line, Hudhaifa Ebrahim takes readers inside [1] Baghdad’s frantic post-election bargaining, where rival Shiite blocs, Kurdish parties, and Sunni leaders are under pressure from both Iran and the United States as they try to build Iraq’s next government. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list came out ahead, yet no camp is anywhere near the two-thirds majority needed to rule, turning Iraq’s fragmented parliament into a high-stakes arena for outside powers.
Ebrahim shows how Iranian officials, including Quds Force commander Gen. Esmail Qaani, have quietly shuttled into Iraq, pressing Shiite factions to preserve the Coordination Framework alliance that first put al-Sudani in office. At the same time, Washington is openly signaling its preference for a coalition built around al-Sudani, Sunni leader Mohammed al-Halbousi, and Kurdish partners, tied to a broader push to curb Iran-backed armed groups and fold the Popular Mobilization Forces into the formal security forces.
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The danger, Iraqi analysts and politicians warn, is that excluding Iran’s allies from power could drive them back to the gun. These factions command hundreds of thousands of fighters, deep ties inside the state, and enough money and weapons to fuel a new round of bombings and armed defections. One activist tells The Media Line that if these groups are pushed out, Iraq could “enter a dark tunnel of armed conflict.”
To understand how a messy vote count could tip a fragile country back toward war, and how far Iran and the US might go to shape the outcome, Hudhaifa Ebrahim’s full story [1] is well worth your time.