Some four months after the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces—comprised primarily of Kurdish YPG units—launched an assault to retake the capital of the Islamic State’s so-called caliphate in Raqqa, the end of the battle is nearing. According to reports, the last ISIS holdouts in the city have brokered a deal to allow them to leave under the cover of human shields after weeks of heavy urban warfare reduced the number of terrorists to an estimated 500. The battle for Raqqa has been fought street-by-street and door-to-door with the support of American airstrikes and intelligence. Now, the focus is slowly shifting to filling the resulting vacuum, with many competing interests at stake. Turkish forces have been deployed in the area with the aim of preventing the establishment of any autonomous Kurdish entity, whereas Shia fighters controlled by Iran and proxy Hizbullah are concurrently vying for position on the ground. Syrian government forces, meanwhile, captured the nearby city of Mayadeen, where many ISIS leaders have sought asylum. The fall of Raqqa is a monumental event in the fight against the Islamic State, whose central operations were run from the city since 2014 and where attacks on the West were planned. The victory over the group has renewed hope that a political solution might be reached to end the Syrian war, which has raged for six-and-a-half years, killed nearly half a million people, and displaced some 10 million more. Analysts say that any such agreement will be difficult to achieve, however, with a major sticking point being Iran’s future military presence in the country, something that is opposed by regional Sunni powers as well as Israel. The degree to which Russia, the major player in the war, attempts to carve out an enduring footprint in Syria will likely also be contested by the US, which to date has limited its involvement in the conflict to combatting ISIS.
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