Just days after Israel entered campaign mode for the third time in less than a year, a new opinion poll commissioned by a right-leaning newspaper found that Benny Gantz’s centrist Blue and White list was pulling ahead of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. The survey published by the Israel Hayom daily – which is widely viewed as “pro-Netanyahu” – showed Blue and White winning 37 seats in the March 2 election compared to 31 for the Likud. Nevertheless, the poll showed neither the Right nor Center-Left blocs gaining enough support to form a majority coalition in the 120-member parliament. Perhaps most significant is the poll’s prediction that Israel’s right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc would receive more mandates (56-51) if Likud were led by Netanyahu rival Gideon Sa’ar, who is set to challenge the prime minister in an internal party leadership vote on December 26. According to analysts, another prospective political stalemate – this, following two inconclusive elections in April and September – coupled with pending indictments against Netanyahu in three separate corruption cases could induce some of the prime minister’s staunch allies to rethink their support for him. Netanyahu’s predicament could be further compounded by a soon-to-be-released legal opinion by Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit outlining whether Netanyahu can be tasked with forming a future coalition given the criminal charges against him. Legal precedent requires Israeli cabinet ministers to resign if indicted for a crime, while a prime minister must resign only once convicted of a crime and out of avenues of appeal, yet there is no law as to whether an indicted prime minister can form an entirely new government.
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