Israel’s Election Fever Update: Netanyahu’s First Security Challenger Expected to Speak – No Joke

Political cynics in democratic nations who joke that candidates would do better if they kept their mouths shut are keeping their eyes – and ears – on Israel. Analysts opine that a key factor in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s longevity – 10 years – is the absence of any formidable challenge to the incumbent’s reputation for handling security matters…until now. Netanyahu is at last facing what is doubtless his most difficult contest: against a serious figure rising from the military echelon strong enough to upset Netanyahu’s choke-hold on the image of the nation’s protector. This, while at the same time state prosecutors are expected to issue indictments pursuant to three corruption investigations. For many Israelis it’s simply time for new blood and that could be former army chief-of-staff Benny Gantz. The retired general has dazzled the nation with his mercurial rise in the polls while revealing next-to-nothing that resembles a platform – or even an opinion on most issues. While acknowledging the possibility of a radical change once Gantz’s feet are held to the media fire, the sudden transition from “no answer” to “Benny Gantz” rings true for an apparently sizable slice of the voting public when asked what is arguably the nation’s most frequently-posed political question: “Who can replace “Bibi” Netanyahu?” What distinguishes Gantz from previous challengers is the inevitable “second question asked” in virtually all polling. While standing alone in the lead-up to previous elections, “question number one” – “Who are you voting for?” – is a poor predictor of results. But question #2 – “Who [read at this precarious time with 150,000 Hizbullah missiles pointed our way] is best suited to lead the nation?” – is for the first time in a decade a toss-up [within 3 percentage points] between Netanyahu and Gantz with time for the newcomer to build upward and for support for the legally-and-longevity-challenged incumbent to wane. Stay tuned.