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Primary in Israel’s Largest Party Underscores Strength of Netanyahu Government

The primary election held by Israel’s Kadima party, the nation’s largest in terms of parliamentary seats held; and the toppling of its chairwoman Tzipi Livni – the head of Israel’s opposition — underscores the strength of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as much as it demonstrates the weakness of the party created by Ariel Sharon as he drifted away from the ideology of his own Likud party. What according to all polls should have been a cliff-hanger challenge to Livni by Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief-of-staff and defense minister who swore he would never leave Likud even as he was making the switch to Kadima, the race inspired fewer than half of the party’s eligible membership to actually vote. Even Mofaz’s victory rhetoric after taking 65% of the vote – pleading the urgency of toppling the Netanyahu government – was mocked by many in light of the reality that the sitting coalition is the most securely entrenched government the country has seen in many years. Many expect Netanyahu to play on his strength and call for early elections, effectively rolling the dice to forego the final year of his existing term to trade upward for a new four-year term. Polling conducted before the Kadima vote which predicted what the new 120-seat parliament would look like “if the election were held today” showed very little difference between a Mofaz- or Livni-led party. The constant among recent polls was the increased strength of Netanyahu’s Likud as the anchor in a coalition able to control the course of events.