Speculation on U.S. Response to Attacks on Oil Vessels

Based upon U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s stated certainty that Iran is responsible for the attacks last week on two vessels carrying oil in the Gulf of Oman, Mideast watchers’ speculation has turned to possible reactions and retaliations by the Trump administration. It took no time at all for oil prices to respond sharply upward following the attack (up 4% almost immediately), which the SecState implied had to have been carried out by the Islamic Republic itself, citing the level of sophistication it takes to operate the weapons used in Thursday’s attack. Accordingly, Pompeo ruled out Iran’s proxy terrorist groups and pinned the blame directly on the regime. The secretary showed a grainy film of what he described as an Iranian naval patrol boat as it pulled up to the hole in the side of one of the two damaged ships and explained that a magnetically-attached mine that had failed to explode was being removed by Iranian sailors.