Another round of peace talks (o one seems to know if it is the third or the fourth) aimed at ending the fifth year of carnage in Syria were due to start on Monday in Geneva, but they have been delayed for an unspecified number of days.
Since 2011, the conflict has killed more than a quarter of a million people, provoked a global refugee crisis unseen since the second world war and left room for the expansion of the Islamic State (ISIS.) It was the Western threat of posed by ISIS, especially following the Paris attacks last November, that spurred a new diplomatic effort to get off the ground and in December, the United Nations Security Council gave its approval to a new peace process but corralling the very same international powers whose interests are at stake has proven to be an insurmountable challenge.
So far, the biggest barrier has been deciding quite simply who gets to be part of the negotiations.
A new coalition of Syrian rebel groups was inaugurated groups earlier this month, with Mohammed Alloush, leader of the Saudi-backed Islamist rebel group Jaish al-Islam, named as chief negotiator. But Russia, Assad’s number one backer, wants a number of rebel groups it defines as terrorists barred from the talks—among them, Jaish al-Islam.
On the other hand, Russia wants to include opposition groups approved of by Damascus, as well as the Kurdish group PYD, who control a significant amount of territory in eastern Syria. Turkey, one of the most significant backers of the anti-Assad rebellion, alongside Saudi Arabia, opposes including the Kurds. Also: the Saudi-backed rebels say they won’t negotiate until the Syrian government stops airstrikes against them, plus, they say they will boycott the talks entirely if Russia’s candidates are invited.
It’s complicated.