Unpopular Cease-fire With Hamas Throws Israel Into Political Turmoil

The cease-fire agreed to between Israel and Hamas has temporarily restored calm along the Gaza Strip border, but it has thrown Jerusalem into political chaos. Less than twenty-four hours after the deal was forged, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman announced his resignation and that he was pulling his Yisrael Beyteinu party out of the governing coalition, leaving Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with a razor-thin one-seat majority in the 120-member parliament. One of the premier’s key partners Education Minister and Jewish Home party leader Naftali Bennett has already threatened to bring down the government unless he is given the defense portfolio, which would provide him with a huge boost ahead of elections tentatively slated for November 2019. Following Liberman’s decision, a survey conducted by Israel’s Channel 2 found that 74 percent of Israelis disapprove of Netanyahu’s handling of the security situation in the south, which on Monday was targeted by 500 projectiles in a span of 24 hours. The survey also showed Netanyahu’s Likud party winning 29 mandates in the next elections, down one from its current 30 seats; whereas the Bennett’s right-wing rival party would gain three mandates for a total of 11, and Liberman’s party would rise 2 seats to a total of 7. Perhaps more significantly, the survey found that if elections were held today, the Likud would garner only 24 mandates if a still-unformed party helmed by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz contested the race, as is widely expected. While Netanyahu would under all of these circumstances remain in a strong position to form the next government, the speculation is that the premier would prefer to let the dust settle for as long as possible on the Gaza situation before heading to the polls (notably, another survey by Israel’s public broadcaster found that two-thirds of Israelis were against the truce deal with Hamas). Nevertheless, the ball may not be in Netanyahu’s court, with many predicting the fall of the government by December 2, the deadline to pass contentious legislation to draft ultra-orthodox students into the military, a move opposed by two of Netanyahu’s coalition partners. If and when a snap vote is called, elections would take place about three months later.