2 Scenarios for the Ukrainian Crisis

Al-Watan, Kuwait, March 24

More than three weeks have passed since the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine at the time of writing these lines. Despite this, I was able to read hundreds of analyses, comments, and predictions about the course of the fighting and its political outcomes — in both Arab and foreign news outlets. As many now know, the issue at hand isn’t specifically related to Ukraine, as much as it’s related to a conflict of interests between the West, led by the United States and NATO, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Ukraine is simply the battleground for this war between two great powers. It provides the firewood on which the flames of war ignite and burn. It is true that the Ukrainian resistance and steadfastness at the military, political, and media levels is admirable. The people of Ukraine are putting up a fight against a huge and influential military machine that is among the most powerful in the world, and an army that is trained and experienced in fighting wars abroad. Yet it is also clear that Ukraine’s achievements are thanks, in large part, to generous Western support on all fronts, ranging from financial support through diplomacy to weapons and armaments. Putin’s Russia wants to reproduce its image, role, and position in the world as a global superpower that can shape international affairs and command respect from other nations. At a minimum, Putin wants to protect Russia’s sphere of influence from Western expansion in general, and from NATO, in particular. Meanwhile, the West hopes to lure Russia into a new quagmire in Ukraine, so that Moscow drains its resources in an endless war that ultimately diminishes its power and tarnishes its reputation. At the very minimum, the West will want Russia to find itself immersed in a slow and painful war of attrition that has led to its rejection by the international community. If these are the two sides of the coin, what can we expect the future to hold? Among the thousands of news, analyses, and comments shared on the war, one will find many attempts to anticipate the outcome of the crisis. Unfortunately, some of these projections went a step too far with wishful thinking and exaggeration. Some researchers and analysts expect that this war will lead to a shocking loss for Putin, which will destabilize his position at home and encourage some powerful oligarchs to oust him. This is pure imagination and wishful thinking. It seems that Putin still enjoys the necessary degree of internal control and support he needs to continue his country’s assault on Ukraine. Another popular prediction is that the war will devolve into a third world war, in which nuclear weapons will be used, leading to widespread destruction. This scenario is also unlikely, as it would result in devastating destruction — and a loss — for both sides. Yet still, there are also those commentators who have shown admiration and support for Putin and expect Russia to emerge from this war as the victor. According to this camp, the war will end with Putin overtaking Ukraine and determining its political future. For my part, I do not think that any of these scenarios is achievable, given the West’s reluctance to get involved militarily in the conflict on the one hand, and the extreme tactical difficulties experienced by the Russian forces on the ground. Based on this, there are two more realistic scenarios for this crisis in the medium term. The first of them brings joyful news to the West: Under this model, the West succeeds in entangling the Russians in the Ukrainian quagmire for years of fighting, which will, in part, turn to guerrilla warfare. This will weaken Russia and exacerbate its internal and external political crises. The second scenario is that Russia succeeds in bringing down Kyiv, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the Ukrainian resistance and achieving tangible military successes. This will provide Moscow with a strong negotiating position, allowing for the intervention of mediators such as China to step in and bring an end to the crisis. Contrary to what we hope, and unfortunately, the developments on the ground and the tragedies the war entails suggest that the most plausible scenarios are the ones I’ve described. –Yasser Abd Al-Aziz (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)