A Likely Change in Turkish Intentions

It has become clear that Turkey made a wild bet on political Islam and that that bet has failed. With it, the Turkish dream of controlling the Arab world and reviving the Ottoman Empire came crashing down. Anyone who observed the collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could have seen this coming; but not Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who chose to play with fire. The collapse of the Turkish economy, the nosedive in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, and the disappearance of foreign investments all reflect uncertainty and lack of confidence in the Turkish regime’s ability to stabilize the country, both politically and economically. Turkey’s foreign policy has been erratic and confusing. It resembled, at times, a circus performer who kept jumping from one high bar to another, dazzling the viewers and earning the admiration of the crowd. But that performer failed to notice when the audience left and the lights were turned off. And the fall from the trapeze is dangerous and painful once the show is over. In essence, Turkey failed to understand the changing regional and international sentiments. It became irrelevant. Worst off, it became ostracized. So what can we learn from the Turkish experience? For starters, it’s clear that Egypt’s foreign policy is far more thoughtful, responsible, and pragmatic. Ultimately, what governs Egypt’s foreign relations are our national interests. Sometimes it is wise for Egypt to intervene in other countries’ affairs, and other times it’s better to sit aside. Therefore, when we maintained closed economic and commercial relations with Turkey, we did so because it was the right move for us. And when we refrained from exerting pressure on the Turkish public to affect regime change, that was also wise. At the same time, we have defined clear red lines that must not be crossed, especially as they pertain to our country’s national security. For example, Turkey’s presence in Libya is one of those issues that crossed a clear red line and required a forceful Egyptian response. It is noticeable that there are shifts in Turkish attitudes towards Egypt. Turkey is isolated and deserted and it is seeking to warm up its ties with Cairo. Some positive results may be starting to emerge, but progress is still partial and slow. Despite the Turkish government’s hostile stance towards Egypt, we may start to see good goodwill measures coming from Ankara in the immediate future. – Abdul Latif Al-Manawi (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)