An Accidental Confrontation Between Washington and Moscow Is Possible

Relations between Washington and Moscow are intensifying, especially after the downing of an American drone in the Black Sea. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that the US will continue conducting reconnaissance flights in the region, wherever international law permits. Moscow, in response, has called on the US to stay away from its borders. This marks the first direct confrontation between the two forces since Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, and signals all of the increased tensions that will be reflected in both bilateral and multilateral relations. The American aircraft, an MQ-9 Reaper, was unarmed and was flying in international airspace on a routine monitoring mission. Russian warships and submarines are abundant in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, the UK is planning to double the number of troops stationed in Estonia as part of its NATO mission. This will likely lead to a variety of consequences, following Germany’s decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, paralleled by similar moves from the US and the UK. French President Macron has stated that any decisions regarding security arrangements must take into account Russia’s security concerns. Critics have continued to accuse France and Germany of failing to offer Ukraine clear support, which has damaged their credibility in the eyes of Eastern European leaders. As a result, Poland and the Baltic countries are looking to the US for real guarantees of security. In this context, it is expected that Russia will act in accordance with its existing policy toward NATO, given that the United States is still viewed as an adversary. Any escalatory policies will be met with more sternness, as evidenced by Russia’s focus on a specific demand that Washington take steps to withdraw its NATO forces and equipment, stop its anti-Russian activities, and even renegotiate the idea of a European security system. This includes demanding that Ukraine maintains a neutral status, an idea that has been rejected by the United States before. The United States is intensifying its confrontation with Russia in all arenas. This could have counterproductive consequences, causing Russia to act rashly. This is evidenced by the fact that the Black Sea also borders NATO member states, such as Turkey and Romania. This is why American drones are able to operate there legally. For months, Russia has been trying to gain control of Bakhmut, with towns and infrastructure in the Belgorod region regularly being targeted by missiles. This confirms that the confrontation is ongoing and is unlikely to end soon. The US and NATO countries are providing Ukraine with weapons of a higher quality, but they are avoiding any direct intervention at the operational level. There is a fear that this bilateral conflict could turn into a multilateral conflict with long-term international repercussions. – Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)