An Important Victory for the Indian National Congress

Al-Ittihad, UAE, May 19

This week, elections for the Legislative Assembly were held in the southern Indian state of Karnataka, home to India’s “Silicon Valley.” In a surprising upset, the Indian National Congress won by a wide margin, taking 135 out of 224 seats—55 more than it had held in the previous elections. This result removed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from the seat of power in the state. The recent election result in Kerala is a setback for the BJP, which only secured 66 seats. It is noteworthy that the party is predominately based in northern India, specifically the heart of the Hindi-speaking region and most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, which holds 80 federal parliamentary seats. Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2014 victory and again in 2019, the BJP has been keen on expanding its political reach to the south, starting in Karnataka with state elections in 2015 and subsequently launching serious initiatives to gain influence in Kerala. There is no doubt that the electoral defeat of the BJP in the state of Karnataka serves as a reflection point on the performance of its government. This result is a testament that there is no single formula for success in a country as vast and diverse as India with its multilingual, ethnic, religious, and local identities. Political parties must be cognizant of continuously evolving realities, which vary from state to state, and even within the same state. Moreover, in national elections, people in India consider numerous factors beyond the scope of local matters. After two terms in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP remain popular, but the Karnataka election victory has provided the Congress Party with a newfound sense of confidence. After a string of defeats in the 2018 elections, the exception being in Himachal Pradesh, this latest success serves as a boost ahead of the 2019 general election. This is an important demonstration that the Congress Party has not gone into hibernation and is prepared to face the challenges posed by the ruling party. The BJP is a powerful political force known for its aggressive campaigning. While the Congress’s victory in the Karnataka elections is a major achievement, the BJP still maintains a level of advantage with the looming 2024 general elections. It is uncertain how the Congress can use this victory to bolster their election strategies, though an opposition coalition could be a step in the right direction. Karnataka’s triumph has empowered the Congress Party, granting it an advantage in negotiations with other, smaller political organizations. The Congress is the only nationwide political force apart from the BJP, with entrenched activists and a pervasive presence. Nonetheless, the party faces a daunting mission ahead. Gaining the support of localities for state elections depends on variable electoral considerations and Congress will have to rack up a few more triumphs this year, before the 2024 general elections, in order to demonstrate that it can effectively challenge the BJP. This year, five more Indian states are set to go to the polls. The Congress Party is currently ruling Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and retaining power in those two states could pose a considerable challenge to BJP in the national polls. Moreover, with Karnataka giving a boost to Congress’ electoral prospects, the party needs to carefully plan and strategize its electoral campaigns to outmatch the BJP at the national level. —Zikru Al-Rahman (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)