Al-Jazirah, Saudi Arabia, February 14
One of the key factors that led to the fall of the Soviet Union was the strict US sanctions regime imposed on the Soviets by president Ronald Reagan. I have no doubt that the fate of the mullah regime in Tehran will be much like the fate of the Soviets unless it brushes its ego aside and sits with the Americans around the negotiation table without any preconditions or demands. When this happens, the Iranians will sit across from their American interlocutors with the sword of sanctions hanging over their necks. They will rush to reach a settlement because a long duration of negotiations will only exacerbate their dire financial situation and internal public rage. While the Americans can afford to take their time, the Iranians will have to expedite the talks as much as they can. The inevitable question, therefore, is: Why are the mullahs constantly rejecting negotiations, giving the Americans the upper hand? Why did they fail to make concessions in the early days of President [Donald] Trump’s term in office, leading to a full-fledged clash with the US administration? My best guess is that they were betting on Trump’s fall and the Democrats’ return to the White House. With polls now indicating that Trump is likely to win a second term in office, the mullahs are finally beginning to realize that not much will change. Given the current situation, the Iranians will have to either succumb to American demands or encounter the same fate of the Soviet Union. Both possibilities might seem to the Iranians a calamity, but reaching a diplomatic solution is the best of two evils. It’s hard to say which path the mullahs might choose. Trump’s re-election will, in my estimation, send Iran into a dark tunnel open to all possibilities. – Muhammad Al-Sheikh (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)