China Is Preventing the Third World War

Al Arabiya, Saudi Arabia, December 16

The war that has been raging in the heart of Europe for months has been grim and harsh, bringing back bitter memories of the world wars of the last century. Unsurprisingly, there are those who predict that it will drag the world into a third world war, but these panicked conclusions are highly exaggerated. We have read and heard speculation that we are on the brink of disaster, but for practical reasons, this will not happen. In fact, what prevents the outbreak of such a war is one country called China. The outbreak of war on a global level can only happen when a massive military force that is difficult to deter decides to invade a fighting theater with its forces, as the Nazis did in World War II. In the past, we feared that Russia would be the country that invades Europe and ignites the first sparks of war, but it has proven its complete inability even to preserve the lands it annexed. Although Western support with arms to Kyiv did not stop, the Russian forces proved from the beginning to be highly incompetent and low in morale over a war whose legitimacy is being doubted even within Russia. With all this confusion, the specter of World War III would have existed if Beijing had decided to join Moscow in its war. The Russian-Chinese alliance would have undoubtedly led to hell. Let us thank God that the Chinese leadership is thinking of invading the world with electronic chips, not tanks. Beijing showed great wisdom and rationality and saved the world from a grim fate. The Chinese foreign minister recently said, dispelling the fears raised by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, that we are heading toward a new world war, and that no one wants a new world war. The Chinese have been deceived by two parties. The first was Western politicians motivated by domestic politics and the desire for reelection, such as Nancy Pelosi, who visited Taiwan as a provocation to embarrass Beijing and push it to ally itself more closely with Russia. The second was the Russians. Foreign Minister Lavrov tried using his diplomatic and rhetorical abilities to drag Beijing into a confrontation with the West, but he failed to achieve any of his aspirations. At the Shanghai Summit, the Russians came out with diplomatic promises whose value faded as the leaders left with their planes returning to their homes. Why did China eliminate the grim option of another world war? Why do its diplomats talk about the importance of defusing war and promoting peace? The reasons are practical and clear. Despite Moscow’s attempts to present a unified front with China, through things like joint military exercises and meetings between leaders, the reality is very different. America and the EU constitute roughly 26% of China’s trade, compared to 2% that is Russian. The Chinese rapprochement with Russia may expose it to sanctions, which would leave a tremendous financial cost on its wallet. We’ve seen this calculus come into play in the context of both the Ukrainian and Taiwanese crises. China is an amazing economic success story. The GDP of wealthy Guangdong Province ($1.8 trillion) surpasses that of Russia ($1.5 trillion). That is why it is in China’s benefit to maintain global stability. Beijing seeks to benefit from the current world order in which it has invested and doesn’t want wars and conflicts to undermine its global posture. Therefore, despite all bleak predictions, we will not see a new world war in the coming years, unless Beijing changes its existing stance. –Mamdouh AlMuhaini (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)