Relations between Egypt and Iran have long been a crucial factor in shaping regional alliances and alignments, reflecting differing visions and priorities. Over the last four decades, diplomatic ties between the two nations were severed and subsequently maintained at a minimal level, yet Iran has persistently taken the initiative to restore full relations with Egypt. This Iranian push is seemingly encouraged by shifts toward more pragmatic policies in the Middle East, where there has been a significant improvement in Iranian-Gulf relations, though connections with Egypt remain tenuous.
Despite the geographical distance, Iran operates within the same regional arenas as Egyptian foreign policy, including Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Bab el Mandeb, and even the Horn of Africa. This distance has led some to view cooperation as nonurgent, with economic ties so minimal that they hardly warrant an enhancement of diplomatic relations. Current levels of security dialogues, addressing mutual concerns such as Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb security and relations with the Houthis or Iraq’s stability, are deemed sufficient.
At present, Iran is seeking to negotiate directly with US President Donald Trump, expressing a preference for direct talks over the indirect negotiations of the past. This raises questions about whether Iran wants Egypt to mediate between it and Washington and what benefits or obstacles this could entail. The significance of Egypt-Iran relations may be more critical to regional and global powers than to the two countries themselves, particularly Egypt.
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Iran has, over recent years, extended invitations to Egypt to enhance diplomatic ties, proposing new bilateral opportunities in tourism and the economy. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has highlighted the shared historical and civilizational heritage of the two nations, advocating for increased cooperation that would benefit both the region and the Islamic world. Under the administration of former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Iran pursued a policy aimed at improving relations with neighboring Arab countries, including several rounds of dialogue with Egypt and Saudi Arabia and a reconciliation agreement with Saudi Arabia brokered by China. Relations with the UAE have also seen improvement, with Iranian officials, including the supreme leader, signaling a new level of diplomatic engagement.
Current President Masoud Pezeshkian’s meeting with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at the D-8 summit was lauded as a “historic moment” by the media, with others noting a diplomatic thaw from Tehran to Cairo. A full restoration of relations could coordinate Cairo and Tehran’s approaches to key regional issues. Egypt’s potential role as a mediator between Iran and Washington could enhance its stature before the US, with implications beyond just the Palestinian issue. For Iran, improved relations could facilitate economic expansion through increased use of the Suez Canal and enhanced trade with Egypt.
The recent regional detente has spurred Iran to pursue pragmatic cooperation, viewing renewed ties with a significant Arab player like Egypt as a major political achievement and an indicator of shifting regional power balances and acceptance. However, the benefits to Egypt may not be as substantial as those to Iran. Shared concerns like Red Sea security and potential oil trade through Iraq, contingent on the lifting of US sanctions, are of mutual interest. Future understandings might also address tensions around the Palestinian issue.
Yet challenges persist, including Egypt’s concerns about Iran’s regional conduct and the security of the Arabian Gulf, which Egypt considers integral to its own security. Fluctuations in Iran’s relationships with Gulf states reflect this complexity. Iran’s reduced activity in regional conflicts, its withdrawal from Syria, and its diminished influence in Gaza following setbacks for Hamas indicate a strategic reevaluation. The primary focus now appears to be Iran’s nuclear negotiations with Trump.
Despite these hurdles, Iran remains determined not to yield in the face of challenges from Israel and Washington. As a regional powerhouse, Iran is poised to reassert its strategic position and rebuild its deterrence capabilities, seeking alternatives to its setbacks in Syria and Lebanon.
Hoda Raouf (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)