Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s visit to Ankara last week was far from an ordinary or fleeting event. It represents a significant moment in the current geopolitical landscape for both Egypt and Turkey. These two nations are pivotal players in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with Turkey providing the northern maritime border and Egypt the southern one. Their historical ties stretch back centuries, most notably from the victory of Ottoman Sultan Selim II [sic, Selim I] over the Mamluk Sultan Al-Ashraf Qansuh al-Ghuri in 1516 to the onset of the French invasion of Egypt in 1798—nearly 300 years. Ottoman influence, although waning, persisted in Egypt through customs and traditions until 1882, when British occupation began, and it vanished entirely with the Ottoman Empire’s collapse post-World War I in 1918. Two vital points stand out here: First, Egypt and Turkey are the most populous countries in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, with Egypt home to over 110 million people and Turkey about 90 million. A significant majority of their populations are Sunni Muslims. Second, Egypt controls the Suez Canal, a critical maritime route connecting East Asia and Europe, while Turkey governs the Bosporus, a crucial passage linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and essential for Russian naval operations. This geographical and historical symbiosis underscores the crucial roles both nations play on the Mediterranean’s southeastern and northeastern shores. Looking at the recent history of Egypt-Turkey relations, the last decade has been fraught with deep-seated disagreements. Tensions peaked following the fall of President Mohamed Morsi and the ascendancy to power of El-Sisi, who emerged from Egypt’s military establishment. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey criticized and opposed the new Egyptian government, mainly due to the collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule in Egypt. However, signs of détente have emerged over the past three years as Ankara revised its regional policies, particularly toward influential Arab nations, undertaking a reconciliation process with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This rapprochement involved sequential steps, culminating in the recent high-profile visits and diplomatic engagements. President El-Sisi’s visit was marked by extraordinary hospitality from Erdoğan, who breached presidential protocol twice to emphasize the visit’s significance. The warm reception at the airport sent a clear message: Ankara is ready to move past old hostilities and open a new chapter with Cairo. Erdoğan’s visit to Cairo in February and El-Sisi’s current visit signal key shifts in the regional geopolitical landscape during one of the most precarious periods in decades. Multiple shared interests necessitate cooperation between Egypt and Turkey, including their roles as regional powers and their strategic positions amid escalating regional crises involving nations like Iran and Israel. Additionally, proxy conflicts raging from Iran’s border with Pakistan to North Africa, impacting Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Libya, and Somalia, further underline the necessity of this rapprochement. Practically speaking, the region is teetering on the brink of catastrophe, with the October 7 events carried out by Hamas presenting a significant challenge to regional powers. Egypt and Turkey must collaborate to safeguard their interests amid the ongoing deadly conflict in Gaza, the West Bank, and other zones of Iranian influence, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to Yemen. Egypt is profoundly impacted by the Gaza war, exacerbated by Iran’s actions which seek to destabilize the region at a high human cost. In this volatile landscape, Egypt and Turkey must converge to address their shared challenges. The international stage is increasingly being described as either a new Cold War or a multi-front global conflict. Economically strained and geopolitically pressured, Egypt and Turkey face formidable challenges. Egypt, in particular, is encircled by turmoil from Gaza to Libya and Sudan to the Horn of Africa, where the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project threatens its water security. These pressing issues were central to the discussions between El-Sisi and Erdoğan. Strengthening cooperation in military industries and boosting trade from $7 billion to $15 billion annually within a year demonstrates both nations’ desire for deeper, more substantive understandings. Resolving the contentious Muslim Brotherhood issue has paved the way for more significant collaboration, especially as the prolonged and complex Gaza war underscores the urgency for unified action. Egypt’s strategic position via the Suez Canal and Turkey’s efforts to navigate the Syrian conflict with Russia underscore the necessity for bilateral cooperation. Turkey’s geopolitical maneuvering, including managing its relations with Russia and the United States, reflects the complex interplay of regional dynamics. President El-Sisi’s visit to Ankara signifies the dawn of a new era in Egypt-Turkey relations, marked by pragmatic cooperation and mutual interests across several critical issues. The overarching goal for both Cairo and Ankara is clear: There can be no turning back. —Ali Hamada (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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