Erdogan Rearranges His Syrian Priorities

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement of a project for the voluntary repatriation of one million Syrian refugees to the areas controlled by Turkey in northern Syria aims to undermine the Turkish opposition, which is using the refugee card against Erdogan more than a year before the date of the presidential elections. Therefore, the return of Syrian refugees doesn’t constitute any kind of tangible change in Erdogan’s position on the Syrian crisis, but rather comes in the context of a reordering of priorities for a president worried about opinion polls. The Turkish president still believes that the Turkish military presence in northern Syria has become a necessity for Turkish national security, especially in light of the hostility to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the fighters of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units. Erdogan is taking advantage of Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine these days in order to rearrange his priorities in Syria. He seeks to become the most powerful regional player in this country, alongside Iran. In a sign of great political and military significance, the Turkish authorities announced two weeks ago that they prevented Russian planes from flying in their airspace if they were carrying Russian soldiers on their way to Syria. At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Ankara informed Moscow that it would not allow Russian ships in the Mediterranean Sea to cross the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to the Black Sea, in accordance with the Montreux Convention of 1936. It is worth noting that Russian ships in the Mediterranean have one single sanctuary, which is a base in the Syrian city of Tartus. These two decisions are directly related to the Russian military presence in Syria. The administration of US President Joe Biden cannot continue to anger Turkey, which enjoys an important position on the southern border of NATO at a time of comprehensive confrontation with Russia. From now until the presidential elections in June next year, Erdogan will take many steps aimed at improving his image and raising his popularity, which has deteriorated due to the devaluation of the Turkish lira and the inflation that it is experiencing due to the pandemic. Erdogan will not hesitate to deploy all tools and tricks at his disposal as a result of the Ukrainian war to restore some power to the Turkish economy, which he is fully aware will be the biggest factor determining his political fate. – Sameeh Saab