French Elections: From the 5th Republic 1.0 to the 5th Republic 2.0

Next Sunday, France will face one of the most perilous legislative elections in the history of the Fifth Republic, established in 1958. The risk underlying these elections stems from the potential upheaval in the country’s political structure, along with complications France hasn’t seen in the last fifty years. The gravest political threat lies in the possibility of the government veering towards radical extremism, either to the far right or far left, especially as the centrist bloc, led by President Emmanuel Macron, struggles with waning popularity in the third year of his second presidential term, set to end in May. Current opinion polls suggest that by the end of the elections, three main blocs will dominate the French National Assembly, albeit with varying proportions. It is estimated that the far-right bloc will lead with 35% of the seats. This bloc is spearheaded by the National Rally, led by former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, with Jordan Bardella heading the election campaign. In second place, according to recent polls, is the New Popular Front, an alliance of four leftist and environmentalist parties, which may secure 30% of the seats. Meanwhile, the centrist coalition Together, aligned with President Macron, is projected to lose most of its current representation in the National Assembly, potentially not exceeding 20% of seats. It appears that the centrist bloc’s strategy, reliant on President Macron’s gamble to dissolve parliament and attract the fragmented left and traditional center-right bases, has failed. This failure occurs despite the left’s internal discord, which managed to unite around a minimal common program. Additionally, the traditional center-right party, The Republicans, has fragmented, with some members joining Bardella’s campaign, weakening Macron’s centrist bloc’s chances of replicating its 2017 success that shattered traditional left and right parties and seized the presidency. All this signifies imminent change. The image of France and the identity of its government will alter if the National Rally secures power with either an absolute or relative majority. This scenario might bring about a “cohabitation government” between the directly elected president and a potentially dominant far-right bloc, reminiscent of the eras of Presidents François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. However, unlike the past, this cohabitation could pair President Macron with the far-right led by Marine Le Pen, marking the first such rise to power for her party in over five decades. This cohabitation could be difficult, if not confrontational, given Le Pen’s party’s methods of political and media communication. The campaign led by Bardella includes contentious proposals, such as amending the citizenship law for those born on French soil—a statute dating back to 1851—and expelling an estimated one to two million illegal refugees. Additionally, the National Rally’s aggressive media and political campaigns against French Muslims under the guise of combating illegal immigration or terrorism could exacerbate tensions, potentially sparking major and violent conflicts in the political arena. Another dramatic scenario looms in France: the possibility that no bloc will achieve a decisive victory, leading to a coalition-formation failure and a governance crisis aptly described by the adage “Ungovernable France.” Given the president’s inability to dissolve the National Assembly again within a year, this could trigger a governance stalemate at both presidential and government levels, contextualizing Marine Le Pen’s assertion that the president might be forced to resign. Although Macron has declared his intent to fulfill his term until 2027, France stands on the brink of significant turmoil, under intense scrutiny from European neighbors worried about the election’s potential repercussions. A critical issue affected by this crisis would be the war in Ukraine and the collective European security against Russian expansionism under President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive policies, reminiscent of the pre-1989 Berlin Wall era. President Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament was a gamble with his legacy and the traditional French political framework. The coming elections may indeed mark a historical divide between the Fifth Republic 1.0, from 1958 to the present, and the onset of the Fifth Republic 2.0, commencing on July 7. —Ali Hamada (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)