The first anniversary of Hamas’ October 7 operation, known as Al-Aqsa Flood, has passed, marking a significant and tragic milestone. This operation unleashed devastating destruction upon the Gaza Strip, as Israel launched an intense military campaign that ravaged the region. The offensive led to massive displacement, with residents forced to seek refuge under the guise of dismantling Hamas’ strongholds and pursuing its members elusive among civilians. Despite the heavy toll on human life, the conflict persevered. The situation became even more volatile with the involvement of Lebanese Hezbollah, aligning itself with Hamas and sparking concerns that Lebanon might share Gaza’s grim fate, especially as Hezbollah intensified its support of the conflict and intertwined Lebanon’s future with Gaza’s trajectory. Hezbollah’s decision to join the war under the banner of support for Gaza disregarded Lebanon’s precarious situation and the strain the conflict would inflict on its fragile social fabric, not to mention its economic and political turmoil. A reassessment of this strategy is imperative to redirect the nation towards a roadmap of reform, beginning with political and economic stability and culminating in a society where citizens enjoy safety, security, and the fundamentals of a dignified life, akin to individuals in other parts of the globe. Yet, Nasrallah chose to plunge into a conflict that offered no tangible benefit to Lebanon, bypassing both governmental channels and Lebanese public opinion. The primary beneficiary of this engagement was Hezbollah, bolstering its alliance with Hamas and elevating its profile at the expense of civilians exposed to the occupying forces’ violence in Hezbollah-held territories. This led to a dramatic exacerbation of Lebanon’s already dire security and economic conditions, thrusting the country into unending crises and deepening national wounds in the vacuum of robust political governance and effective legislative bodies. The unchecked presence of Hezbollah effectively commandeers the state’s future, stripping Lebanese citizens of their rights and dragging them into direct confrontation with Israel, despite the mounting losses and relentless economic downturn. The fallout from Hezbollah’s showdown with Israel has severely battered Lebanon’s economy, already reeling from prolonged crisis and political inertia, stifling tourism, impairing infrastructure, and curtailing agricultural exports. Even foreign reserves and GDP have endured significant setbacks. The collateral damage from Israeli airstrikes, notably those targeting densely inhabited areas, coupled with the bombardments on September 17-18 that claimed at least 32 lives, have placed additional burdens on Lebanon’s fragile health care system, swamping hospitals with casualties. The nation’s scant resources are further strained by the swelling ranks of internally displaced Lebanese (estimated at one million) alongside the substantial Syrian refugee population that Lebanon has accommodated since the onset of the Syrian civil war. In retaliation for joining Hamas’ war, Israel retaliated against Hezbollah on October 8, 2023, targeting its political and military leadership, including the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s supreme leader. The assault led to the annihilation of Hezbollah’s headquarters, compromising its infrastructure to an unprecedented extent, and resulting in significant evacuations from southern Lebanon and the southern districts of Beirut, traditionally strongholds of Hezbollah support. The group’s adherents are now gripped by panic and uncertainty about their future. Although Israeli forces maintained that their strikes aimed solely at Hezbollah positions, the involvement of densely populated areas in Lebanon resulted in civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and the systematic destruction of border villages. Lebanon finds itself in a precarious period, with the ongoing conflict threatening to expand and potentially evolve into an all-encompassing war, potentially devastating the nation’s resources, impoverishing the people, and obliterating its economy. The specter of restoring national balance appears bleak unless the Lebanese populace takes a decisive stand against Hezbollah, compelling it to relinquish its grip on Lebanon or undergo radical transformation. However, there is no precedent in Hezbollah’s history or ideology supporting such a change. Hezbollah’s current trajectory seems to be steering it towards inevitable self-destruction due to its refusal to face fundamental truths. While the notion that Hezbollah transforming into a purely political entity, integrating its forces into the Lebanese army, would instantaneously dispel Israeli threats may be far-fetched, Lebanon would undoubtedly be in a stronger position to defend its sovereignty if unified. The most robust safety mechanism for the party and its followers lies in the collective solidarity of the Lebanese people. Yet, to earn this solidarity, Hezbollah must relinquish its arsenal and become an equal partner in Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts, aligning itself with other Lebanese factions. —Abdel Bari Fayyad (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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