We are nearing the precipice of a large-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. This alarming prediction was made by a senior Lebanese official involved in the diplomatic talks that have taken place following Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah military commander, Fuad Shukr, on July 30. Despite Hezbollah’s grandiose threats, the actual response fell short. Hezbollah’s retaliation involved an attack of 340 basic missiles and six drones, none of which hit their publicly announced targets as declared by the party’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah’s rhetoric has noticeably softened since his initial speech after Shukr’s assassination, signaling a need to temper expectations within both Lebanon and the broader Iranian-aligned factions across the region. The narrative has shifted from ambitions of “destroying Israel” to merely preventing an Israeli victory. A review of Nasrallah’s speeches over the years reveals a stark contrast between the rhetoric and actual actions of Iranian leaders and their allies. The outcomes of recent conflicts, from Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran’s responses to numerous strikes in Syria and Iraq, have been inconsistent and unremarkable. Indeed, the Al-Aqsa Flood operation carried out by Hamas on October 7 took Israel by surprise, revealing the intensity of Palestinian resistance. However, it also opened the floodgates for the most extreme Israeli operation in Gaza, resulting in the deaths and injuries of approximately 150,000 Palestinians and the destruction of vital civilian infrastructure. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially sought to force a large-scale Palestinian exodus from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula, the firm stances of Egypt and Jordan thwarted this aspiration. Nonetheless, this setback did not prevent the continued devastation of Gaza and the severe restrictions imposed on the West Bank, framed by the Israeli government as a “Second War of Independence,” echoing their narrative from the 1948 conflict, which Palestinians and Arabs call the “Nakba.” Interestingly, early in the Gaza conflict, officials in Iran suggested that Hamas’ operation was a response to the 2020 assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani by the US. Some Iranian media figures speculated that the attack was also a reaction to the Indian-Arab-European economic corridor project announced in Delhi in August 2023, which includes a route through Israel. Additionally, it was posited that the operation aimed to disrupt the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a possibility hinted at by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a September 2023 interview with Fox News. These insights reveal the complex nature of the current Middle Eastern conflict, centered on Gaza and potentially extending to Lebanon. Currently, Lebanon appears poised to be the next battleground. While some dismiss the notion of an all-out war, believing the conflict to be one with a definable time horizon rather than boundless escalation, the reality is that an unprecedented year-long war is unfolding. In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s war began with limited attacks aimed at unsettling Israel while it conducted its operation in Gaza, while avoiding a broader conflict. However, since February 2024, following unsuccessful American and French diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire, Israel’s actions have escalated dangerously. Israeli strikes have intensified in scale and violence, culminating in the assassinations of Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. These assassinations followed Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, where he met US leadership, including President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Hezbollah’s ineffective response and Iran’s reluctance to escalate have exacerbated the situation, resulting in increased Israeli operations in the West Bank and southern Lebanon. Israeli forces have systematically destroyed new areas in southern Lebanon and displaced an estimated 140,000 people. The destruction of residential areas has surged, with over 25% more damage compared to the period before August. Concurrently, Israel has targeted weapons depots and missile platforms across the south while continuing its assassination strategy. International efforts to avert an Israeli-Hezbollah war have diminished, leaving both sides on a collision course. Hezbollah insiders now acknowledge the increasing likelihood of a large-scale conflict in Lebanon imminently. Hezbollah’s media now discuss scenarios of an Israeli war in Lebanon and Syria. Ultimately, Hezbollah can no longer rely on slogans of “support” and “liberation” to disguise the impending crisis. What looms is a potential war of survival, threatening to deplete a significant portion of Hezbollah’s military and morale. As tensions remain high, this conflict could persist indefinitely. —Ali Hamada (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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