Iran and the Escape to the Unknown

Al-Arabiya, Saudi Arabia, December 6

Iran is still trying, in vain, to find a way out of the sanctions and its inevitable fate. But it failed yesterday, today, and will continue to fail tomorrow. Its leadership is failing to understand that its strategic recklessness does not improve its bargaining power; it only tightens the noose around its neck. Events of recent days suggest that the mullahs are anxious and confused, suffering from disagreements and contradictions even among themselves. This may be the reason why President Hassan Rouhani declared a few days ago that his country was ready to launch negotiations with the United States on a multilateral framework if Washington lifted the sanctions that it reimposed on Iran. Rouhani seems to believe that the Americans have the memory of a goldfish and that the Trump administration will bite the same bate that Barack Obama did. History always repeats itself, and the Trump Administration cannot afford to let the Iranian debacle happen twice. Trump resents the Iranians and, unlike his predecessor in office, is unwilling to make any gestures toward the mullah regime. Day after day, the world is waking up to persistent and deceiving Iranian actions. Through its actions, Iran is repeatedly revealing its true intentions. The undeniable truth is that Iran fell into the trap of arrogance. In light of its grim economic conditions, it has no choice but to face growing internal conflict and public strife. The Revolutionary Guard Corps, which engages in daily acts of terrorism, will not succeed again in turning against the Iranian masses. A few days ago, The Wall Street Journal drew attention to what US financial intelligence revealed – that the Iranian government is experiencing a crisis in foreign exchange reserves, a crucial indicator of the country’s ability to control economic forces and import supplies. This lack of foreign exchange reserves, the decline in oil exports, and the increasing trade deficit place Iran in greater economic distress than it was in 2013 – that is, before it signed the notorious agreement with the US in 2015. In terms of numbers, the International Monetary Fund estimates Iran’s foreign exchange reserves at $86 billion, 20% less than it had in 2013 when it accepted negotiations. Therefore, the immediate question is: Will Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, drink from the cup of poison that was drunk by Khomeini the founder, and accept submission to Pompeo’s 12 conditions? Evidence seems to suggest otherwise. Observers of Iranian affairs believe that Iran would rather ignite the whole region in its attempt to save itself. On Wednesday, Washington was talking about new evidence indicating that Iran was smuggling new weapons and forces into the Middle East, possibly indicating that it was planning for a possible attack. In this context, the American Politico magazine reported that the US government is planning to support the protests of the Iranian people in several ways, most notably by lifting the Internet ban in the country and by escalating the media campaign in support of the Iranian people. The Americans believe that the recent Iranian youth protests are a sign of the effectiveness of the intense American pressure campaign against Iran. If the Iranian people take to the streets, the mullah regime will have no choice but to continue burning its foreign reserves to save the economy. This will only expose it to further danger and potential collapse unless it comes to the table and negotiates with the United States. –Ameel Amin (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)