Is Europe Prepared for a Long, Cold Winter?
Al Arabiya, Saudi Arabia, August 3
It seems that the Russo-Ukrainian War will enter its fourth phase in the coming months. The first phase of the war began on February 24 this year when Russian forces launched an attack on Ukraine’s military bases, airstrips, command centers, and air defense systems and began advancing toward Crimea, the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, the city of Kharkiv, and the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian forces responded by pushing Russian troops into their cities, where they had the upper hand and could slow down the attacks directed at them. This slowed down the Russian advance and caused significant Russian casualties. Indeed, the method succeeded, especially in blocking Russia’s attack on the capital of Kyiv. From here, the Russian forces began the second phase of their offensive operations by changing the direction of their main attack toward eastern Ukraine, in the direction of Kherson, Mariupol, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Indeed, the Russian forces succeeded in seizing Mariupol, following a scorched-earth policy, which entailed the complete destruction of Ukrainian cities using massive firepower. The Russians began making use of ballistic missiles like the Kinzhal, Iskander, and Kalibr missiles. In response, the United States and NATO equipped Ukrainian forces with the Stinger anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which have a short range of 3 to 6 kilometers and are used primarily for defensive purposes. America’s goal was to prolong the war and tire Russia. When Ukraine asked the United States for long-range ballistic missiles, US President Joe Biden rejected this request. In my view, this was a wise decision since the introduction of weapons that could threaten Russia’s homefront would have seriously exacerbated the war. On the economic level, the results of this war affected most countries, especially poorer Third World countries that have been disproportionately affected by the shortage in grain, particularly wheat, coming from Ukraine. Consequently, Russia found itself compelled to ease the blockade on Ukraine. Therefore, in late July, the Kremlin agreed to a safe passage agreement mediated by Turkey, under the auspices of the United Nations, which allows Ukrainian ships to export grains for a period of 120 days. The agreement stipulated the establishment of a center in Istanbul to monitor and inspect all movements of ships and to ensure that no weapons or military equipment is smuggled, in exchange for a Russian pledge not to attack ships carrying grain during their voyage. Meanwhile, the European Commission urged EU member countries to reduce their gas consumption by at least 15% in the coming months, in anticipation of Russia’s shrinking supply of natural gas to Europe. Russia is currently confident about its economic conditions and has proved to the world that the economic sanctions imposed upon it have not been effective. Hence, Moscow is preparing for a long war in the coming months, which will constitute the fourth stage of this conflict: starving Europe of gas this coming winter. The question here is: What will Europe do from now on to be prepared for next winter’s war? EU states are looking for quick alternatives to Russian gas, which can be implemented immediately in the coming months. Some have already contracted with alternative providers such as Italy and Algeria, while others are purchasing natural gas liquefaction stations to increase imports from Gulf countries. Regardless, everyone in Europe is now busy preparing for a cold and harsh winter, which was not taken into account when this war began. –Samir Faraj (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
