Israel’s Inevitable Return to Gaza

Benjamin Netanyahu has effectively positioned himself as a pivotal figure in Israel’s political landscape. Though he maneuvered from Gaza to Lebanon with Hezbollah’s facilitation, ultimately, he’ll be compelled to return to Gaza. Despite the severe devastation, Gaza undeniably represents the core of the Palestinian cause, a reality Netanyahu cannot afford to overlook. This remains true regardless of Hamas’ accountability for the events unfolding in the region. Currently, the Israeli Prime Minister’s popularity is on the rise, stemming largely from Israel’s successful assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s southern suburbs. However, this acclaim does not render Netanyahu impervious in the long term. He must navigate a geopolitical landscape that demands a departure from extremism and embraces a pragmatic political strategy. While Netanyahu’s military achievements reflect the prowess of Israel’s military and security apparatus, backed by the United States, they do not translate into political triumphs for Netanyahu himself. Sooner or later, he will have to concede that his aspirations to resolve the Palestinian issue according to his terms are unattainable. Lebanon’s situation differs significantly from Gaza’s, and Hezbollah’s negligence in acknowledging Gaza’s plight ranks among its gravest strategic errors, culminating in the loss of its senior leaders, including its secretary-general. Israel has transformed Gaza into a region largely uninhabitable by its native population, complicating reconstruction efforts as a significant fraction of its 2.5 million residents have been displaced. Israel’s recent intensified focus on the conflict in Lebanon is telling, particularly given Lebanon’s lack of allies on the global stage. How can a rational observer suggest linking the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon with those in Gaza? Such a proposition ignores the ground realities, including the fact that Hamas has not launched a single rocket in solidarity with a beleaguered ally currently facing existential threats. The conflict extends beyond decimating Hezbollah’s ranks; it has inflicted severe repercussions on Lebanon, a nation grappling with a profound socioeconomic crisis that endangers its very existence. Aligning with Israel under the assumption that Gaza continues to resist is detrimental not only to Lebanon but also to the Lebanese, including those from the southern regions displaced by Hezbollah’s directives, who persist in advocating for a Gaza ceasefire. Yet, Israel appears intent solely on extricating itself from the Gaza quagmire. For Netanyahu, prolonging the Gaza conflict may serve personal objectives, but persisting with the war in Lebanon is unnecessary if specific conditions, which require acceptance from willing parties, are fulfilled to salvage what remains of the beleaguered nation. Halting hostilities in Lebanon is feasible. A definitive stance from Hezbollah, utilizing the skeletal framework of Lebanese state institutions, could facilitate the return of displaced southern residents to their villages and the subsequent reconstruction of their homes. Simultaneously, displaced Israeli citizens could return to their homes if credible assurances are provided. While the Gaza issue will persist, Lebanon’s circumstances require addressing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This reality increasingly underscores the inevitability of returning to Gaza, signaling a broader call to return to political solutions. Netanyahu seems reluctant to acknowledge this impending necessity. Nonetheless, expelling an entire population from historic Palestinian territories is impracticable. A new Middle East simply cannot emerge without a resolution in Palestine. Meanwhile, Lebanon languishes, abandoned amid its ongoing crisis, lacking effective governance and authority. —Kheirallah Kheirallah (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)