Libya Will Become the Brotherhood’s New Home

Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, June 26

Even those who do not agree with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi recognize his ability to control his temper and his patience. Three years ago, the Libyan war represented a huge challenge for Egypt, with armed groups infiltrating the border between the two countries on a regular basis. However, Cairo chose to tackle it by tightening border guards and chasing infiltrators within its own territory. Also, for years, patience has been directed at incitements stemming from Istanbul, Doha, and London, carried out by the Egyptian opposition based in these locations, trying to mobilize the Egyptian street and calling for violence and confrontation. However, Cairo ignored them. El-Sisi saved Egypt from the Muslim Brotherhood. However, I now fear that the Egyptians are in for another round against the Brotherhood, based on recent remarks made by the former emir of Qatar, who claimed that while the Brotherhood failed to take over Egypt in the first round, there are “still more rounds left in the future.” In Libya, the adjacent country, we notice that the goals of war are changing. The fighting there is no longer over who will lead the government, but rather over the establishment of a new regional base for the Brotherhood, where it can incubate and grow. Given the growing Turkish military presence in the country, it seems inevitable that Libya will become the new home for the Egyptian opposition. That is why Ankara intervened directly not to lift the siege on the capital, Tripoli, but went to Sirte, the oil areas, and the Egyptian borders. The Egyptian opposition is currently living in Istanbul, which failed to penetrate Egypt and move the street against el-Sisi, will relocate to Libya. Turks see in Libya oil and geography. It is a country that, when tightly controlled, is able to support the activities of Turkey, which can use it for its own geopolitical ambitions. Among other things, Libya offers Turkey a land crossing into Egypt and Sudan, in which it seeks to develop deep extensions. – Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)