Al-Bayan, Dubai, February 14
In the few short weeks since the Israeli-Iranian standoff in Syrian airspace, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears to have worked hard to de-escalate mounting tensions on his country’s northern border. While the Iranians denied the allegations that one of their drones entered Israeli airspace, it is clear that such a provocation did, in fact, occur. Similarly, while the Israelis tried to de-emphasize the magnitude of the downing of one of their jets, the interception of an F-16 by Syrian air defense systems is a deeply alarming development for Israel. The incident has raised the real fear of a direct Israeli-Iranian confrontation, which could drag the entire region into war. But Netanyahu is realizing that he is alone in this battle. The Russians, who the Israeli premier has been aggressively courting, agreed to provide Israel with freedom of action in Syria’s skies but have done nothing to curb Iran’s hostile activity along Israel’s borders. The Americans, who seemingly have Israel’s back, have taken zero action on the ground to challenge Tehran. In this environment, Netanyahu is fearful of acting alone. Granted Iran is currently weakened by its costly adventures in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, which has been altogether destroyed by years of brutal conflict. This could still be the time for Israel to preemptively strike—but without international backing Israel will not initiate a war against Iran. Netanyahu might publicly intensify his rhetoric against Iran, but behind closed doors he will do whatever he can to keep the situation as calm as possible. – Muatasam al-Dahlul