Al-Sharq al-Awsat, London, January 12
U.S. President Donald Trump decided once again to extend the nuclear deal with Iran for a period of a few months, while warning that this will be the last waiver he signs before re-imposing sanctions on the country. But this was not cause for celebration in Tehran. In recent weeks, the mullahs have come under heavy fire. Despite the regime’s brute use of force against protesters, anti-government demonstrations are entering their fourth week. The Iranian economy has also taken a huge hit with the plunging value of the Rial. Concurrently, one of Iran’s largest oil tankers, docked off the Chinese coast, caught fire last week, generating flames that could, according to experts, last for a full month. I have said this before and I will say it again: the protests in Iran are a dramatic development that could impact the stability of the regime. Granted, the people alone will not bring down their government. Iran has shut down social media platforms, disrupted internet connectivity and cracked down on activists through its elaborate intelligence agencies. But coupled with mounting international pressure and Iran’s dire financial situation, the current upheaval could bring about change. This process can be slow or very rapid—it is hard to predict. But it remains clear, beyond any doubt, that the Iranian regime, which has ruled the country for over four decades, will not be able to continue ignoring calls by the younger generation for reform. Iran’s continuous adventures in the region, its involvement in extra-territorial conflicts and growing pressures both at home and abroad will eventually take their toll on the mullahs. The current developments are much more dramatic than they are being made to seem. We must closely monitor the events unfolding in Tehran and elsewhere in the country. – Abd al-Rahman al-Rashed