Al-Araby al-Jadeed, London, November 22
A new round of talks on the Syrian situation is scheduled to begin in Astana at the end of November. The tenth round of talks, which took place in late July, revolved around the issues of combating terrorism and the return of refugees. The head of the Russian delegation, Alexander Lafrinttiv, claimed then that the talks brought about “positive developments.” However, the Syrian people did not notice any changes on the ground except for the so-called reduction of escalation, which resulted in a forced reconciliation between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime, the subsequent handover of the former’s weapons, and their forced displacement to the Syrian north. Unfortunately, Russia has not been able to keep up the promises it made to those who accepted the reconciliation. Obviously, Iran plays a big role in thwarting any attempt to find a solution to the situation in Syria. It knows that the end of the conflict between the regime and the opposition may reunite Syrians again. Under such circumstances, Tehran’s presence in Syria will be challenged, and its involvement in Syrian political life will be brought to the fore. Similarly, the Assad regime will be unable to justify the existence of Iranian militias in Syria after a political solution is reached, especially since the general public rejects Iran’s meddling in Syria’s domestic political affairs. The Syrians, like the rest of the world, know that Tehran’s ultimate goal is to achieve an ideological, cultural and demographic occupation of Syria. Even Russia will be unable to defend Iran’s expansionist project in the region, because doing so will risk Moscow’s close relations with a number of Arab and non-Arab countries that have become increasingly threatened by Iran in recent years. With this in mind, the real question now is what the next round of talks in Astana will bring. Will it provide a way out of the crisis in Idlib? Can it pave the path towards negotiating a final solution for the Syrian crisis in Geneva? Or, conversely, will it provide the groundwork for Iran to establish a permanent and formal presence in Syria, which will lead to more fighting and further bloodshed in years to come? – Riyad Naasan Agha