The Chinese Balloon and Geopolitical Connotations
Al-Ittihad, UAE, February 8
On February 4, the United States took action against a Chinese balloon that had been flying over its airspace for several days. At the president’s instruction, US forces were poised to intercept the balloon, but on the recommendation of military leaders the decision was made to wait until the balloon flew away from land before destroying it. The balloon and its accompanying devices ultimately fell into the Atlantic Ocean off the South Carolina coast. Its remains will be recovered for careful examination. This event raises the question: Why did China allow this to happen at a time when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was preparing to visit Beijing and meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss ways to improve bilateral relations between the two countries? According to US Republicans, the goal behind the balloon incursion was to humiliate the Biden administration, showcasing China’s growing disdain for America as a weak world power. When presented with the balloon’s flight path, the Chinese response was that it was simply a matter of a weather-monitoring balloon that had deviated from its original path. China expressed its outrage when it was shot down. The American media suggests that the Chinese government is facing internal pressure due to dissatisfaction with the COVID-19 closure policy which has led to an economic recession. Xi hoped Blinken’s visit would help create a more balanced relationship between the United States and China. However, Blinken canceled his visit without specifying a new date, which is unfortunate as any improvement in US-Chinese relations is to the benefit of both countries, especially considering their shared economic interests. As pressure mounts in the United States to reduce reliance on China for consumer goods and to stem the flow of American technology to the country due to mismanaged trade policies and reported cases of industrial espionage, the consequences of a major disruption in economic ties between the two nations would be disastrous. US intelligence sources have suggested that the balloon in question belonged to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and was part of a large military arsenal. This incident is intertwined with the ongoing territorial disputes between China and its maritime neighbors concerning access to the South China Sea. For years, China has maintained that most of the South China Sea is under its sovereignty, and that the US and other naval powers are encroaching on its maritime space. However, other nations have vehemently contested these claims, asserting that China has no legal right to interfere with international maritime traffic. It is anticipated that China will become more assertive in its opposition to the US presence in the contested waters, potentially increasing the risk of a military conflict that both sides would undoubtedly prefer to avoid. The gravity of the situation with regard to China’s hardening stance toward Taiwan is clear, and President Biden addressed this in his State of the Union address to Congress on February 7. He acknowledged the challenge the United States faces in its competition with China, and asserted that “betting against America was never a good bet.” His statement was a reminder of the United States’ commitment to safeguarding Taiwan’s autonomy and freedom from the threat of Chinese aggression. —Geoffrey Kemp (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
