The Iranian Nuclear Bomb: Truth and Consequences

The US undersecretary of defense recently asserted that Iran has obtained enough fissile material to manufacture a nuclear bomb within 12 days. This claim is supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) February 28 quarterly report which reveals the presence of 83.7% enriched uranium particles at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant. Additionally, the IAEA has confirmed Iran’s clandestine experiments to create uranium for use in nuclear weapons. Therefore, it appears that Iran has acquired enough enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon in a short window of time. This revelation leads to the pertinent question: Will Iran move forward with producing nuclear weapons? The answer to this question is complex. It is unclear what Tehran’s true intentions are; while at times it appears that the mullahs are serious in this endeavor, other times it appears they are simply using it as a threat to exert pressure against the West. Israel has made it clear that it will take military action if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, even without the support of the United States. This reaction, as well as potential antagonism from other nations such as Russia, Turkey and Gulf states, would be disastrous for Iran, especially in light of its current economic crisis and diminishing legitimacy. All evidence points to the conclusion that Iran will not accept the suicidal step of producing nuclear weapons in the near future. In 2015, the Iran nuclear agreement was implemented, making it difficult for the country to produce nuclear weapons for at least 10 years due to the agreement’s strict provisions and inspections of reactors. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the nuclear program in 2018 encouraged Iran to resume uranium enrichment operations that had stopped after 2015. When Biden took office, he sought to revive the negotiations on the nuclear program, however these discussions have stalled due to disagreements over sanctions. This leads us to conclude that Tehran has deliberately escalated its nuclear ambitions at this time as a strong bargaining chip to pressure Washington into returning to negotiations and to make the significant concessions they are demanding, such as the lifting of harsh economic sanctions that put the regime’s legitimacy in jeopardy. As the Biden administration grapples with two potentially dangerous confrontations – one with Russia and one with China – Tehran may believe that it cannot open a new line of confrontation, which could develop into a military conflict in the region. Tehran may also think that Washington will attempt to placate it by isolating it from its main Russian and Chinese allies in the long run. Ultimately, Iran does not currently plan to acquire nuclear weapons, due to the severe consequences of such an action, but it is shrewdly using it as a bargaining chip to be recognized as the preeminent power in the region. –Noura Saleh Al-Mujim (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)