Al-Hayat, London, Originally posted in Arabic on June 20
This week marks the one-year anniversary of the fall of Mosul, one of Iraq’s largest cities, into the hands of the Islamic State (ISIS). Today, ISIS controls several million Iraqis, who live under its rule and rely on its authorities in their everyday lives. These Iraqi children are educated in Islamic State-sponsored schools, their sick are treated in Islamic State-controlled hospitals, and their prisoners appear before Islamic-State sanctioned courts. All the while, the Islamic State increases its foothold in more and more regions of the Levant.
The problem with the West’s battle against IS is that it fails to understand that there are three branches to the Islamic State, each of which has to be battled differently. The first is the Islamic State in places like Saudi Arabia; stable and powerful Arab countries that are able to protect themselves independently. In such places, ISIS works to wreak havoc wherever there is little state control, and the best way of fighting the organization is to directly target its members and tame them. More policing, more air strikes, and more public security are sufficient means in defeating the organization.
The second branch is the one in Syria. The Syrian regime is taking advantage of the presence of ISIS in the country in order to carry out attacks against the opposition and suppress the ongoing revolution. The average Syrian cannot wait to get rid of Assad, and will therefore not shy away from supporting the Islamic State – if it guarantees a change of regime. There is no easy way to defeat this branch of the State without facilitating Assad’s resignation and the establishment of a moderate new regime.
The third and most difficult branch is the one in Iraq. This is likely to be the hardest to eliminate, since the Islamic State controls vast territories in the country and, more importantly, a huge population. There will be no way to tame the organization without killing thousands of innocent Iraqis, who currently live under ISIS rule. To make things worse, such strikes can only be realistically carried out by the United States and its allies, making it highly controversial. Distinguishing between these three types of organizations is important.
There is no doubt that, eventually, all three branches of the Islamic State will fall. The question is how long it will take, and what price we will pay along the way. –Jamal Khashkiji