Israel is currently engaged in what can only be described as an existential conflict in Lebanon. This issue has stemmed from the displacement of approximately 70,000 Israelis from their homes in the Galilee, in settlements near the Blue Line that demarcates the border with Lebanon. The number of displaced Israelis is increasing daily as the conflict expands. What if these individuals remain outside their homes indefinitely? The answer is stark: Every Israeli would feel the loss of security in a homeland that was meant to serve as a haven for Jews. This homeland, established on the land of Palestine and at the expense of the Palestinians, was intended to be a refuge for Jews worldwide. Could this situation lead to a potential emigration from Israel, thereby jeopardizing its existence? As of now, our world appears to turn a blind eye to Israel’s actions. From this vantage point, it becomes strikingly clear that if the residents of Upper Galilee settlements remain displaced, every Israeli may be compelled to consider emigration. Consequently, the conflict in Lebanon appears to be of greater significance than the war in Gaza. The government under Benjamin Netanyahu has successfully devastated Gaza and must now pivot its focus to Lebanon, ensuring that the Al-Aqsa Flood scenario is not replicated from southern Lebanon. Crucially, the Israeli government must find a way to facilitate the return of the displaced individuals from Upper Galilee to their homes. Hezbollah, essentially an extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, has misunderstood the implications of the Gaza conflict. It has dragged Lebanon into a war that had little to do with it, further displacing Israelis from Galilee settlements. This accounts for Israel’s aggressive stance towards Lebanon, underscored by Hezbollah’s miscalculations. Despite Hezbollah’s significant losses, including the bombing of its entire pager network, the killing of party leaders such as Ibrahim Aqil, and the displacement of more people from the South, there are essential considerations to address. Chief among these is the ill-advised decision to link Lebanon to the Gaza war, a move that constitutes another misstep by Hezbollah, casting Lebanon’s fate into uncertainty. The Gaza war is nearing its end, but the future of the Strip remains unclear. No one is more invested in the continuation of the Gaza war than Netanyahu, who ties his political survival to it. Meanwhile, Israel’s military establishment sees no benefit in prolonging the Gaza conflict now that much of the Strip lies in ruins. The military seeks a deal with Hamas to recover hostages, while Netanyahu is willing to let these hostages remain as bargaining chips in Hamas’ hands, prepared to sacrifice them. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah should have comprehended from the outset that disassociating Lebanon from the Gaza war was crucial, instead of entangling this beleaguered nation in it. Nasrallah missed a significant opportunity in his recent speech by completely ignoring UN Security Council Resolution 1701. While there may be internal Israeli discord about the continuation of the Gaza war, there is a consensus regarding Lebanon and the threat Hezbollah poses to northern Israel. Ultimately, Hezbollah is merely a tool of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one employed in parallel conflicts mirroring the prolonged Gaza war. Another critical aspect is that Lebanon, fraught with internal instability, cannot afford a war with Israel. How can a faction in Lebanon, essentially an Iranian proxy, drag the nation into a conflict that spells certain disaster? What have the people of southern Lebanon done to deserve suffering from both Palestinian and now Iranian weapons, all in the pursuit of a deal with the United States? Lebanon teeters on the brink of uncertainty, with parts of its territory becoming another Gaza. The devastation in dozens of southern villages and the displacement of their inhabitants is a testament to this. The stance taken by the Lebanese government, effectively allowing the Lebanese mini-state to defend the “Hezbollah state,” will only lead to further ruin. This unfolds as it becomes increasingly apparent that Hezbollah, which dominates Lebanon, lacks the capacity for withdrawal, starting with its acceptance of Resolution 1701 and its immediate enforcement. Retreat demands immense courage. It does not signify defeat but rather an acknowledgment of reality: the prevailing military and political power dynamics in a world, regrettably, more concerned with appeasing and safeguarding Israel. —Kheirallah Kheirallah (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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