Al-Arab, London, January 11
“When you pray for rain, you better prepare for a flood,” says an old Arab proverb. It seems that U.S. President Donald Trump prayed for rain but instead sank his administration in a tumultuous flood of water. To help save the administration from total chaos following the resignation of General James Mattis, National Security Adviser John Bolton has been desperately trying to convince U.S. allies of his revised vision of peace and stability in the Middle East based on confronting Iran first. However, each of the U.S. allies has its own position on Iran, including some member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as well as Turkey. This will make Bolton’s task almost impossible, especially with the ambivalent position of President Trump on all issues revolving around American foreign affairs. Bolton is undoubtedly the strongest man in the White House. For this reason, he was entrusted with taking care of Israel and Turkey, while Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, was sent to the Gulf. In order to appease the Israelis, who are furious over Trump’s decision to withdraw all U.S. forces from Syria, Bolton arrived in Tel Aviv last week to meet the Israeli Prime Minister. The consolation prize he offered to the Israeli premier is an American recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. In Turkey, Bolton will try to convince Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to maintain a long-term Turkish military presence in Syrian territory. Pompeo, meanwhile, is interested in bridging the gap between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and ending the siege imposed on the latter. To do so, Pompeo has already hinted to concessions he expects Riyadh to make. It will be interesting to observe whether Riyadh agrees to make these gestures willingly, or whether Trump will be forced to threaten the Crown Prince with an investigation of the Khashoggi case as a political lever. Regardless, it remains clear that Trump’s policies in the Middle East have been disastrous. The Trump administration has undermined all of the United States’ strategic allies, most notably Europe. Its misunderstanding of the situation in the Middle East will have major consequences not only for our region, but also for Europe, East Asia and Africa. –Abdallah al-Janeed